Eideard

 
The headline is just an amusing excuse to post this. This wasn’t a banner tournament for Vassily Ivanchuk, but it’s a delight to see him talk about his game. He says that he didn’t do any special preparation for this game, and that his opening move was inspired by the suggestion of “a girl” via Skype. Simple enough, right?

O.K., Eid likes me to post chess stuff once in a while, based on what I find interesting. This is what I find interesting today.

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Play over the moves to Ivanchuk-Nakamura here: Ivanchuk vs Nakamura
Read coverage of the tournament here: Magnus Carlsen wins Medias 2011

A new journal article in the May issue of Accounting Review shows that sell-side financial analysts expend greater effort to generate earnings forecasts of publicly traded firms with less readable 10-K filings. This increased effort by analysts results in earnings reports to investors that contain more information—but less accuracy and greater uncertainty.

Required annually by the SEC, 10-K reports provide a comprehensive overview of a company’s business and financial condition and include audited financial statements.

“Given the difficulty of following firms with less readable disclosures, analysts who choose to follow these firms likely exert greater effort to do so,” said Reuven Lehavy…. “On the one hand, lower readability of firm financial disclosures can increase the cost of processing the information in these disclosures and, therefore, can increase the demand for analyst services.

“On the other hand, less readable disclosure can increase the costs of analyst coverage. That is, analysts bear greater information-processing costs and higher private search costs for this information, which can lead to less accurate forecasts.”

Lehavy and Ross School colleagues Feng Li and Kenneth Merkley measured the readability of more than 33,700 observations of 10-K filings from 1995 to 2006. Using the Fog Index developed by the computational linguistics literature, they were able to determine the written complexity of 10-K reports by counting the number of syllables per word and number of complex words per sentence.

Through statistical analysis, the researchers found that more financial analysts follow firms with less readable 10-K reports (which suggests a greater demand for analyst reports for these firms); these analysts take, on average, two days longer to issue a first forecast revision following a 10-K filing (which suggests more effort put forth by them); and provide earnings forecasts that result in proportionally higher firm returns associated with their reports (which suggests that investors find these analysts’ reports more informative).

However, the study shows that analyst earnings forecasts for companies with less readable 10-K reports have greater dispersion, are less accurate and are associated with greater overall analyst uncertainty.

AFAIC, yet another reason to cast a dim eye on such reports. Poisonally, I’m happy enough with raw data and analyzing it myself – or following the work of someone who did the same. Futzing around with reports generated under the premise of confusing the government, satisfying the minimum intent of reporting regulations – is a waste of time.

The most widely adopted measure for assessing the state of the world’s oceans and fisheries led to inaccurate conclusions in nearly half the ecosystems where it was applied. The new analysis was performed by an international team of fisheries scientists, and is reported in this week’s issue of the journal Nature.

“Applied to individual ecosystems it’s like flipping a coin; half the time you get the right answer and half the time you get the wrong answer,” said Trevor Branch, a University of Washington aquatic and fisheries scientist…

“This study makes clear that the most common indicator, average catch trophic level, is a woefully inadequate measure of the status of marine fisheries…”

The trophic level of an organism shows where it fits in food webs, with microscopic algae at a trophic level of one and large predators such as sharks, halibut and tuna at a trophic level around four…

The authors determined that those averages were declining over time and warned we were “fishing down the food web” by overharvesting fish at the highest trophic levels and then sequentially going after fish farther down the food web.

Twelve years later newly compiled data has emerged that considers the numbers and types of fish that actually live in these ecosystems, as well as catch data…

An example of the problem with the measure is in the Gulf of Thailand where the average trophic level of what is being caught is rising, which should indicate improving ecosystem health according to proponents of that measure.

Instead, it turns out fish at all levels have declined tenfold since the 1950s because of overharvesting.

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A new study has determined that teenagers who have abortions are no more likely to become depressed or have low self-esteem than their peers whose pregnancies do not end in abortion.

The study conducted by researchers from Oregon State University and University of California, San Francisco, is the first to use both depression and low self-esteem as outcomes with a nationally representative sample of adolescents.

The researchers found that young women in the study who had an abortion were no more likely to become depressed or have low self-esteem within the first year of pregnancy – or five years later – than their peers who were pregnant, but did not have an abortion…

Jocelyn Warren said previous research has shown that adolescent girls who get pregnant report more depression and lower self-esteem compared to those who don’t. “What we didn’t know was whether psychological outcomes are worse for girls who choose abortion. This study says, ‘No.’”

“In the interest of women’s health, it’s critical that we conduct the most rigorous studies possible and use evidence-based information to inform public policy,” Marie Harvey, co-author, said. “This is our goal in public health research but it may be even more important in areas such as abortion that are highly politicized.”

As a proper science-based study, the authors make the point that decisions about medical procedures should be evidence-based. Almost an impossible standard to reach given the farce that passes for lawmaking in the United States.

Nutballs trot out their pet ideology, favorite superstition, and ask the whole nation to adhere to whatever spooky crap they believe should be so. Scientific study, measured programmatic analysis over time, has minimal influence on hacks inclined to base political and social decisions upon myth – and possible votes.

My favorites

Loma Linda University has amassed the best statistics yet of the positive effects of eating nuts on blood lipids. By pooling the data from 25 individual nut consumption studies conducted in seven countries with more than 500 subjects, investigators determined the most informative numbers to date on how nuts lower cholesterol and triglyceride levels…

Eating an average of 2.3 ounces of nuts daily (67 g, about 1/3 cup) produced the following healthful reductions: blood total cholesterol was lower by 5.1 percent, LDL (bad) cholesterol by 7.4 percent, the LDL/HDL cholesterol ratio by 8.3 percent, and the total cholesterol/HDL ratio by 5.6 percent. In people with higher than normal blood triglycerides—greater than 150 milligrams per deciliter—nut consumption reduced triglyceride levels by 10.2 percent.

“Results of this study provide yet the best evidence that eating nuts reduces LDL cholesterol and improves the blood lipids profile,” says Joan Sabaté, MD, DrPH, of Loma Linda University, lead researcher on this study and one of the pioneers in nut research. “The findings from this analysis support those from epidemiological studies which have consistently shown that habitual nut consumption reduces the risk of heart disease.

“Thus, a simple change of eating nuts regularly can make a big difference in people’s health,” he concludes.

Reminds me of my favorite line about “How do you catch a squirrel?”

Climb a tree and make a noise like a nut!

They were 51 young men who met a grisly death far from home, their heads chopped off and their bodies thrown into a mass grave.

Their resting place was unknown until last year, when workmen excavating for a road near the London 2012 Olympic sailing venue in Weymouth, England, unearthed the grave. But questions remained about who the men were, how long they had been there and why they had been decapitated.

On Friday, officials revealed that analysis of the men’s teeth shows they were Vikings, executed with sharp blows to the head around a thousand years ago. They were killed during the Dark Ages, when Vikings frequently invaded the region.

“To find out that the young men executed were Vikings is a thrilling development,” said David Score, project manager for Oxford Archaeology, which excavated the remains. “Any mass grave is a relatively rare find, but to find one on this scale, from this period of history, is extremely unusual and presents an incredible opportunity to learn more about what is happening in Dorset at this time…”

The burial site was found during work for the Weymouth Relief Road, meant to ease traffic congestion on the highway to Weymouth, on England’s southern coast. Weymouth Bay and nearby Portland Harbor will host the Olympic and Paralympic sailing events during the 2012 London Olympics.

The leader of the Dorset County Council, Angus Campbell, said the construction of the road had already revealed prehistoric and Iron Age finds.

“But we never would have dreamed of finding a Viking war grave,” Campbell said in a statement. “The burial pit took us all by surprise and its story gets more fascinating as the analysis goes on.”

I realize this is intimidating to those who fear history, fear knowledge. This stuff is fascinating, filling in the details of broad strokes of history for large segments of geopolitics, economics and culture.

For ages experts and laymen have been analyzing and trying to crack the code of handwriting characteristics, in order to detect an individual’s personality traits, or in most cases, gauge their innocence in the case of a crime. Although this science has often gone the way of pseudoscience, researchers are now discovering that with the aid of a computerized tool, handwriting characteristics can be measured more effectively.

The research, headed by Gil Luria and Sara Rosenblum at the University of Haifa, is published in an upcoming issue of Applied Cognitive Psychology. The researchers utilized a computerized tablet that measured the physical properties of the subject’s handwriting, which are difficult to consciously control (for example: the duration of time that the pen is on paper versus in the air, the length height and width of each writing stroke, the pressure implemented on the writing surface). They have found that these handwriting characteristics differ when an individual is in the process of writing deceptive sentences as opposed to truthful sentences.

The handwriting tool has the potential to replace, or work in tandem, with popular, verbal-based lie detection technology such as the polygraph to ensure greater accuracy and objectivity in law enforcement deception detection.

Additionally, polygraphs are often intrusive to the subject and sometimes inconclusive. The handwriting tool therefore provides ease and increased accuracy over common, verbal-based methods.

More work, more work, peer review and experimentation.

Imagine reviewing historic documents with micro-analysis to retrieve significant data!

Daylife/Reuters Pictures used by permission

As the whirlwind of Cash for Clunkers draws to a close, it’s coming full circle: The Fed site crashed under the load of dealers signing up – it crashed under dealers getting their final deals into the hopper.

Here are five lessons we see for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cleaning up the national vehicle fleet and helping boost the market for greener cars.

Green Tint + Stimulus = Fast Pass on Capitol Hill: Help consumers, the environment, an ailing industry, entrepreneurs and the U.S. economy in one fell swoop — that was the basic pitch for cash for clunkers. Add in the fact that legislators were in a hurry to leave for their August vacation, and you have a formula for a very speedy $3 billion trip through Congress.

Some economists have argued that the rebates have condensed vehicle purchases into a narrower time frame, rather than spurring additional sales.

The Crystal Ball straw man means nothing. “Some economists” aren’t worth the paper their degree is printed on.

Bill Clinton updated his famous campaign line, “It’s the economy, stupid,” with a cleantech twist this month at the National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas. He suggested modeling a set of incentives for electric vehicles after cash for clunkers, saying the high level of participation in the program “proves that Americans will bite if you make it economical enough.”

The Obama administration’s efforts to promote greener cars have so far focused mostly at offsetting the sticker price (through a $7,500 tax credit for plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles, for example.) But that might not be enough to spur a sustainable leap to greener vehicles. For evidence, look to the success of Japan’s more comprehensive approach to boosting hybrids and the results of a new study on Canadian rebates for hybrid buyers. However, making Americans “bite” at plug-in vehicles over the long term might require other regulations affecting vehicle cost, such as fuel prices.

Yup.

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The GigaOM Network has been increasing its group of tech blogs, but its newest feature is a subscription research service called GigaOM Pro.

Om Malik, the founder of GigaOM Network, plans to sell in-depth research reports on technology sectors and shorter, timely reports on companies and news in those sectors to technology and business executive. Subscriptions to the service, which GigaOM is unveiling Thursday, will cost $79 a year at first and more down the road, said Mr. Malik, in an interview. (Read Mr. Malik’s blog post on GigaOM Pro here.)

GigaOM is the latest example of a Web company that once relied solely on advertising for revenue adding new revenue streams. On Monday, I wrote about other start-ups making similar shifts.

“To assume that there is only one revenue stream, which is advertising, is kind of short-sighted in this kind of media economy,” Mr. Malik said. He does not believe in charging for content that publishers have already given readers for free, so GigaOM Pro adds additional services. Readers have asked for deeper analysis than blog posts can provide, he added…

Six GigaOM Pro analysts will cover four areas: infrastructure, mobile, green I.T. and the connected consumer. Led by Michael Wolf, who recently joined GigaOM from the analysis firm ABI, they will add more topics in coming weeks. Bloggers for GigaOM blogs will contribute content.

GigaOM Pro will also offer longer briefings, like a 23-page report on the smart energy home or a 65-page briefing on social media in the enterprise. There are quarterly and weekly wrap-ups and closer looks at certain companies in a sector, such as a report on whether Google will lead the way in mobile app innovation and an analysis of Cisco’s acquisition of Pure Digital. Analysts also publish collections of links to relevant articles from around the Web.

I suppose this wouldn’t be especially newsworthy or a topic for a diarist like me – except for the fact that it centers on Om Malik. Om is not a guru; but, his knowledge of tech business – grounded in a global understanding of many business streams – provides a heck of a lot more useful information than does anyone more likely to use the title.

I don’t give investment advice except to a couple of close kin. I think I ain’t bad at it because I got back to where I was before the recent crash – last week. But, if there is anyone in print, digital or otherwise, that I might credit with prompting a few of my picks – it would be Om.