China in transition – 5 Easy Pieces from Project Syndicate

There are dozens of pieces in this collection linking the latest with the recent, butting the detailed up against broad data sources, contrasting old hands with new analysis from within and outside China. Some of my favorite writers from Project Syndicate. Some I haven’t read before. I’ve picked out five – to start.


Xi Jinping talks with local people in the home of Roger and Sarah Lande in Muscatine, Iowa

President Xi’s Singapore Lessons

China is at a crucial point today, as it was in 1978, when the market reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping opened its economy to the world – and as it was again in the early 1990’s, when Deng’s famous “southern tour” reaffirmed the country’s development path.

Throughout this time, examples and lessons from other countries have been important. Deng was reportedly substantially influenced by an early visit to Singapore, where accelerated growth and prosperity had come decades earlier. Understanding other developing countries’ successes and shortcomings has been – and remains – an important part of China’s approach to formulating its growth strategy…

China’s House Divided

There has been much talk about America’s decline in recent years, with the corollary that China will take its place. But, while the United States does indeed face problems that urgently need to be addressed, if China is to rise further, to say nothing of supplanting the US internationally, it must first put its own house in order.

Those who argue that America is in decline have a difficult case to make in economic terms. For all its recent woes (which many countries would gladly exchange for their own), the US remains a dynamo of industry and innovation, and may be emerging as an energy powerhouse as well.

What threatens America’s global leadership is, rather, some of the most divided and disruptive domestic politics in its history. A country whose people have traditionally prided themselves on practicality is experiencing a debilitating bout of excessive theorizing, ideology, and so-called “new ideas,” thereby forestalling the practical ideas that come from constructive interaction with one’s political opponents…

A New Agenda for China’s New Leaders?

Political leadership transitions typically signal either a change in direction or continuity. But the mere prospect of such a transition usually postpones some important political decisions and freezes some economic activity, pending the resolution of the accompanying uncertainty.

China’s decennial leadership transition, culminating at the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress, is a case in point. And, while many will remember when a Chinese leadership transition was a political and cultural curiosity that had few direct economic implications for the world’s major powers, those days are long gone.

The Renminbi Challenge

Last month, China unveiled its first aircraft carrier, and is gearing up to challenge the United States in the South China Sea. By initiating a plan to internationalize its currency, China is similarly seeking to challenge the dollar on the international stage.

In carving out a global role for the renminbi, Chinese policymakers are proceeding deliberately. In the words of the venerable Chinese proverb, they are “feeling for the stones while crossing the river…”

China is Okay

Concern is growing that China’s economy could be headed for a hard landing. The Chinese stock market has fallen 20% over the past year, to levels last seen in 2009. Continued softness in recent data – from purchasing managers’ sentiment and industrial output to retail sales and exports – has heightened the anxiety. Long the global economy’s most powerful engine, China, many now fear, is running out of fuel.

These worries are overblown. Yes, China’s economy has slowed. But the slowdown has been contained, and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. The case for a soft landing remains solid…

The voices in our press that speak for official wings of American politics are still locked into Cold War ideology. I doubt the difference is more than one of degree between the NY TIMES and FOX NEWS. Without this commitment, the single largest wasteheap of taxpayer dollars – the Pentagon Budget, public and hidden – cannot be justified. The built-in subsidy to America’s war machine is impossible to pass in a nation at peace, working for peace, a nation that considers peace a critical goal.

A sound deficit-free economy is still held hostage to the military-industrial complex Eisenhower feared – and every president since has worked to increase, fatten and fawn over.

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