Myths about China’s ghost cities

ghost cities

Ghost towns tend to start as boomtowns, and contemporary China more than likely has more boomtowns than any other country in history. No economy has ever risen so rapidly and no place has ever built so much so quickly. This rapid growth has resulted in peculiar side effect: ghost cities, everywhere.

Although the term “ghost town” is technically a misnomer in this case. A ghost town is a place that has become economically defunct — in other words, a place that has died. What China has is the opposite of ghost towns: It has new cities that have yet to come to life.

There are nearly 600 more cities in China now than there were when the Communist Party took over in 1949. This large-scale urban transition began in the early 1980s, when rural areas began being rezoned as urban en masse and the city took center stage in China’s plans for the future. In the early 2000s this urbanization movement was kicked into high gear. New urban developments began popping up seemingly everywhere — along the outskirts of existing cities as well as in the previously undeveloped expanses between them. Many cities doubled or even tripled their size within relatively short spans of time. In just 15 years Shanghai alone grew sevenfold and its population increased to more than 23 million from 6.61 million.

China’s broader urbanization movement shouldn’t be thought of as a developmental free-for-all. There is a method behind all of this building and an overarching framework. Ten massive new urban conglomerations called mega-regions have been proposed in strategic locations across the country. These are essentially city clusters of 22 million to more than 100 million people each that are to be connected through infrastructure, economically, and, potentially, even politically…

When developers purchase these new plots of land, they are prohibited by law from sitting on them. They must build something. While it is commonly thought that getting in on a new development zone early is key to making a big profit, these areas tend to lie far outside the bounds of mature, built-up urban areas. This often means constructing vast apartment complexes, giant malls and commercial streets in places that do not yet have much of a population base to support them.

Building a new city from the ground up is a long-term initiative, a process that China estimates takes roughly 17 to 23 years. By 2020, Ordos Kangbashi plans to have 300,000 people, Nanhui expects to attract 800,000 residents and 5 million people are slated to live in Zhengdong New District. China’s new cities are just that: new.

There is hardly a single new urban development in the country that has yet gone over its estimated time line for completion and vitalization, so any ghost city labeling at this point is premature: Most are still works in progress. But while building the core areas of new cities is something that China does with incredible haste, actually populating them is a lengthy endeavor.

When large numbers of people move into a new area, they need to be provided for; they need public services like healthcare and education. Therefore, a population carries a price tag and there is often an extended period of time between when cities appear completed and when they are actually prepared to sustain a full-scale population. This could be called the “ghost city” phase…

It generally takes at least a decade for China’s new urban developments to start breaking the inertia of stagnation. But once they do, they tend to keep growing, eventually blending in with the broader urban landscape and losing their “ghost city” label.

Can you imagine an American journalist, much less an American politician or a denizen of Wall Street capable of appreciating planning that accepts a 17 to 23 year timeline? It’s so much easier to sit back and point fingers at furriners who do things differently from a nation of builders and homeowners that created Levittown.

Nope. Steven Roach, the economics maestro of MCSI in Asia for decades – and now senior fellow and senior lecturer at Yale – tends to demolish “ghost city” tales of woe with a brevity I appreciate. Even though I would like a wee bit of invective thrown in for good measure. I’ve seen him do it on Bloomberg TV more than once.

It’s even more useful and productive to bump into a source within the conservative confines of a Reuters blog that fleshes out the reasoning behind the process so well. Now, I have to get his book. 🙂

Thanks, Wade Shepard

Our oceans hold the key to sustainability

Although 97 percent of the earth’s surface water is made up of oceans, humans use only a small percentage of the sea for food. Instead most people, especially those in Western cultures, rely heavily on land-based agriculture for food that result in deforestation, soil degradation, greenhouse gases, and depletion of freshwater supplies. In the August issue of Food Technology magazine…senior editor/writer Toni Tarver writes about how the oceans are an untapped resource for food that is not only more eco-friendly but, in some cases, more nutritious than land-based foods.

Fish and marine animals contain several nutritional benefits. Rich in vitamins A and D, selenium, zinc, iodine and iron, fish also contain essential omega-3 fatty acids, docosahexenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) which support proper brain functioning. In Asian and Nordic countries, where seafood is a dominant part of the cuisine, the life expectancy of both men and women is four to seven years longer than in Western cultures where seafood is consumed on average once a week. In addition rates of obesity, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes are much lower.

Although there are between 300 and 500 different species of fish sold for human consumption, only three types make up more than 50 percent of all seafood consumed: shrimp, tuna and salmon… Americans could benefit from expanding their seafood palate to include mackerel, mullet, sardines, oysters, mussels, clams, lionfish, and other unidentified edible species.

And that’s not even getting into seaweed – something many Asian and Pacific cultures are fond of.

You can check out Toni Tarver’s original article over here.

State and country trade maps


Click to enlarge

International trade is a big part of America’s economy, and a factor in each of the fifty state economies that constitute it.

The Census Bureau publishes annual figures on each state’s international trade. In addition to the top 25 goods imported and exported by each state, the Bureau reports the 25 countries each state imports the most from and exports the most to. We took a look at the biggest trade partners by dollar value of goods imported and exported for each state in 2014.

Here’s the country that each state imports the most from. Canada and China loom large.

NSS.