Reshoring — Matt Blease
❝ How long will it be before you, too, lose your job to a computer? This question is taken up by a number of recent books, with titles that read like variations on a theme: “The Industries of the Future,” “The Future of the Professions,” “Inventing the Future.” Although the authors of these works are employed in disparate fields — law, finance, political theory — they arrive at more or less the same conclusion. How long? Not long.
❝ “Could another person learn to do your job by studying a detailed record of everything you’ve done in the past?” Martin Ford, a software developer, asks early on in “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future”…“Or could someone become proficient by repeating the tasks you’ve already completed, in the way that a student might take practice tests to prepare for an exam? If so, then there’s a good chance that an algorithm may someday be able to learn to do much, or all, of your job.”
Later, Ford notes, “A computer doesn’t need to replicate the entire spectrum of your intellectual capability in order to displace you from your job; it only needs to do the specific things you are paid to do.”…
❝ The “threat of a jobless future” is, of course, an old one, almost as old as technology…Each new technology displaced a new cast of workers: first knitters, then farmers, then machinists. The world as we know it today is a product of these successive waves of displacement, and of the social and artistic movements they inspired: Romanticism, socialism, progressivism, Communism.
Meanwhile, the global economy kept growing, in large part because of the new machines. As one occupation vanished, another came into being. Employment migrated from farms and mills to factories and offices to cubicles and call centers.
❝ Economic history suggests that this basic pattern will continue, and that the jobs eliminated by Watson and his ilk will be balanced by those created in enterprises yet to be imagined — but not without a good deal of suffering. If nearly half the occupations in the U.S. are “potentially automatable,” and if this could play out within “a decade or two,” then we are looking at economic disruption on an unparalleled scale. Picture the entire Industrial Revolution compressed into the life span of a beagle.
And that’s assuming history repeats itself. What if it doesn’t? What if the jobs of the future are also potentially automatable?
RTFA. Sooner or later this will be key to a national election. In every nation in the industrial world. Probably every nation, industrial or otherwise. Mechanizing most agricultural work doesn’t even require AI.
Cynic that I am I expect the United States to drift into a tidy, tightly-class-structured version of Dicken’s 19th Century industrial England. It will take Socialist-led Scandinavian nations or a later version of China’s morphing Communist-led economy to build inclusive models. American capitalism and American workers will probably continue to elect variations of Trump or Hillary depending more on ad campaigns, sloganeering, than competent economics.