Thumbs down on Trumponomics from Nobel-winning economists

❝ A pack of Nobel Prize-winning economists gave Donald Trump and his policy plans the thumbs-down on Friday, with one saying the president-elect’s programs could lead to a deep recession.

Speaking on a panel during the first day of the annual American Economic Association meeting in Chicago, the Nobel laureates voiced a variety of concerns about the billionaire developer’s stance, from his haranguing of U.S. companies about their outsourcing plans to the risk that his tax and spending proposals could lead to run-away budget deficits.

“There is a broad consensus that the kind of policies that our president-elect has proposed are among the polices that will not work,” said Joseph Stiglitz, summing up the views of the panel that included his fellow Columbia University professor Edmund Phelps and Yale University’s Robert Shiller…

❝ …While other presidents have run big budget deficits in the past, they depended on foreign purchases of U.S. debt to do so.

With Trump threatening to renegotiate U.S. trade agreements and shift to an “America First” policy, the willingness of foreigners to keep buying U.S. government securities can’t be taken for granted, University of Chicago’s Roger Myerson said.

America’s interaction with other countries “has to be based on confidence and trust,” Stiglitz said.

The world view of the United States – right now – wavers between contemptuous laughter and risk-based angst. In my mind, quite justifiably.

A history of living conditions on Earth in 5 charts

world-pop-vs-poverty

A recent survey asked “All things considered, do you think the world is getting better or worse, or neither getting better nor worse?”. In Sweden 10% thought things are getting better, in the US they were only 6%, and in Germany only 4%. Very few people think that the world is getting better.

What is the evidence that we need to consider when answering this question? The question is about how the world has changed and so we must take a historical perspective. And the question is about the world as a whole and the answer must therefore consider everybody. The answer must consider the history of global living conditions – a history of everyone.

Cynic that I am – even as an optimist – I tend to have a low opinion of my fellow Americans’ commitment to lifetime learning, understanding the world around us. This study makes it clear I should extend that analysis to our species worldwide. 🙂

Actually, things are better than that. But, I can’t resist grumbling – especially on a cold, snowy weekend moving into the mud phase.

RTFA. It serves as the debut for OUR WORLD IN DATA website. Which looks really interesting and useful.

Thanks, Barry Ritholtz

Looking for work in a growth [har] industry?

❝ …Indeed, the marijuana industry seems set to explode. This week, Arcview Market Research announced that in 2016, the legal weed market in North America generated $6.7 billion, up 30% from 2015, when marijuana was the second-biggest growth industry in the US (after peer-to-peer lending platforms).

❝ Washington DC, and 28 states have passed laws, with various caveats, allowing medical marijuana use. As of this month, recreational cannabis is legal in Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and DC. Possession has been decriminalized in 13 states. Overall, more than 20% of adult Americans now have access to weed, medically or recreationally.

❝ …“Canadians have had a medical marijuana program since the 1990s. I grew up knowing adults who smoked weed,” Lisa Harun, co-founder of Vapium, explains. “It’s medically recommended for 200 conditions, and it could help a lot of people who are popping pills right now.”

After more than a year of research and development, in early 2014, Vapium released its first device and there’s no going back for Harun or the company. She was a little nervous to talk to her “elders” about the new manufacturing plans at first, explaining, “I do a pulse check before launching any conversation.” But everyone’s been surprisingly receptive, from her 12-year-old nephew…to her 85-year-old great aunt, who expressed hope that the cannabis vaporizers find use in every home.

❝ Harun believes the increasing recognition of weed as therapy makes it ever-easier to get into the industry. She suggests that anyone who is interested consider either applying an existent passion to the developing marijuana market — like law or baking, say — or for those who don’t know what they love yet, use this trick to figure out a way in: “Think of a problem you want to solve and the people who suffer from it — even something simple like stress, or menstrual pain — and consider how cannabis could be or is being used to address it.”

I guess I should look at the baking side of the equation. It’s been almost 60 years since I quit smoking and even a half-legit rationale for vaping couldn’t tempt me. OTOH, if I get to where I need chemical/pharmaceutical management techniques for pain management – I’d probably try working some weed into my weekly batch of bran/blueberry muffins.