Future Hurricanes Likely To Be Worse Than Harvey

How powerful would Hurricane Harvey have been in 1880? How much stronger might it be in 2100?

❝ A single Hurricane Harvey has been more than anyone can bear. But to better prepare cities for future storms, researchers are preparing to re-watch Harvey thousands of times. They’ve already been studying earlier storms, and their conclusions don’t bode well for the decades to come.

❝ In the months and years after Superstorm Sandy’s 2012 assault on New Jersey and New York, Gary Lackmann, an atmospheric science professor at North Carolina State University, was asked how the event might be understood in light of human-driven global warming. He knew that the question everyone wants answered—did climate change cause the storm—wasn’t the right one. Hurricanes were around long before the industrial revolution. Two questions did, however, resonate:

How does climate change affect the frequency or intensity of huge storms?…

What would the weather pattern that sustained Sandy have spawned in a cooler past or a hotter future?…

RTFA for conclusions.

The body of Lackmann’s study ran before Hurricane Harvey. He’s adding that info to an ongoing evaluation. The more empirical data you have, the better. Especially in the political climate of crap “alternative facts” so loved by today’s conservatives.

45 thoughts on “Future Hurricanes Likely To Be Worse Than Harvey

    • Cassandra says:

      “A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/-150-billion-misfire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong …because the Bermuda high jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, which shifted
      the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma away from the biggest population center of Miami-Dade County. See also https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_fqmnY.9MNg/v1/800x-1.png – note cost of damages from Irma only reflects U.S. losses
      According to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia:
      “Simulations based on the paths and powers of some that rammed the U.S. 100 or more years ago show they were far more disastrous, or would be if they arrived today when the population is much more dense and there is far more, and far more expensive, property to destroy.
      One hurricane that raked the U.S. East Coast in 1893 was so furious the impact could have added up to $1 trillion. “They haven’t really happened in our modern economy,” Watson said, adding it’s only a matter of time. “We have so much stuff and so much infrastructure. Leave all the arguments about climate change aside; we are rapidly moving into that era where we are going to be seeing $50 billion, $100 billion storms, and I will not be surprised when we get to $300 billion.”

  1. p/s says:

    “Forecasters are eyeing the path of Hurricane Jose, as it circles close to the south-east coast of the USA, in case remnants of the storm impact Britain’s weather. Jose is weakening as it moves between the Bahamas, Bermuda and Puerto Rico and is forecast to do a slow, clockwise loop staying away from land. But experts are predicting it could regain energy towards the end of this week and head across the Atlantic, where it may eventually influence European weather patterns.” https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/forecasters-studying-path-hurricane-jose Meanwhile: “Violence Erupts on Desperate Caribbean Islands: ‘All the Food Is Gone’” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/americas/irma-caribbean-st-martin.html

  2. Postmortem says:
  3. Gene Augury says:

    “Tropical Storm Jose Could Threaten New York Next Week, National Hurricane Center Says” (Bloomberg Sept 15 2017) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-15/tropical-storm-jose-could-threaten-new-york-next-week-nhc-says Forecasters are also keeping an eye on Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee later today. Another system that’s about 1,200 miles east of the Windward Islands of the Caribbean should turn into Hurricane Maria next week. Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today as it moves north towards Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and the tourist resorts of Cabo San Lucas. Rain from the remnants of Norma could dampen portions of the U.S. Southwest by the middle of next week, the National Weather Service says.

  4. NXT says:

    September 18th at 12:00 PM EDT [Washington Post]: “Intensifying Hurricane Maria is a severe threat to the Caribbean and Puerto Rico; Jose to scrape Northeast coast” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/18/intensifying-hurricane-maria-is-a-severe-threat-to-caribbean-and-puerto-rico-jose-to-scrape-northeast-coast/
    Depiction of the Fujiwhara effect as it might play out with Jose and Maria, based on this morning’s run of the European model: tropicaltidbits.com.
    Meanwhile, as of 12:00 UTC Sep 18, 2017: Hurricane Norma has weakened and become a Tropical Storm off the coast of Baja California https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17E_tracks_latest.png In 1997 Hurricane Nora took an unusual path, making landfall twice as a hurricane in Baja California. Weakening quickly after landfall, its remnants lashed the Southwestern United States with tropical-storm-force winds, torrential rain and flooding.

  5. Cassandra says:

    “The 2017 Hurricane Season Really Is More Intense Than Normal” (NYT 9/19/17) https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/hurricanes-irma-harvey-maria.html It was only 25 days ago that Hurricane Harvey made landfall. You could be forgiven for thinking it’s been longer. After all, that was four hurricanes ago. …also, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might cost a combined $290 billion in the US: two storms producing double the economic damage of four in 2005, which included Katrina.
    Real time map: Tracking Hurricane Maria’s Path https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/18/world/americas/hurricane-maria-tracking-map.html

  6. Go figure says:

    “After Hurricane Irma ravaged the Caribbean island of St. Martin, local residents looked to a $17 million estate owned by President Donald Trump and were shocked by what they saw.
    Trump’s Chateau des Palmiers on Plum Bay beach in St. Martin managed to survive the devastation of Hurricane Irma without so much as a single roof tile damaged.
    According to USA Today, roughly 95 percent of St. Martin was destroyed when Hurricane Irma passed through the island on Sept. 6.” http://www.americanow.com/story/society/2017/09/14/trumps-st-martin-estate-survives-hurricane-destruction-photo

  7. Hard Cheese says:

    Storm Brian will be the second UK named storm of the 2017 season as Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Lee merge in the Atlantic to form a violent post-tropical cyclone. http://www.express.co.uk/latest/storm-brian (many links, maps and other info – also includes catchy tabloid headlines such as “DOUBLE HURRICANE HELL: Giant Atlantic SUPERSTORM set to smash into Britain NEXT week”)

  8. New Norm says:

    An oceanic gyre is creating a low-pressure area in the region that can lead to the development of a large tropical cyclone next week in the western Caribbean Sea near Central America, the Weather Channel reports. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/wait-and-see-time-florida-disturbance-maria-lee-head-out Water temperatures in the area are currently in the mid- to upper 80s, the Weather Channel adds, mentioning that they are about two to five degrees above average.
    Also: New all-time record for U.S. rainfall from a tropical cyclone
    A phenomenal 64.58” of rain observed at the Texas town of Nederland during Hurricane Harvey is the new rainfall record during a tropical cyclone at any U.S. location, according to new data released Wednesday by the National Weather Service. The 64.58” beats out the 52” recorded at a ranger station on Kauai, Hawaii, during Tropical Cyclone Hiki in August 1950.

  9. Nuther says:

    800 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ A disturbance that lingered in the North Caribbean for days is now making a northeastward beeline as Tropical Storm Philippe, the 16th named storm of this very active Atlantic season. In records going back to 1851, this year is now in 10th place for the most number of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.

    • October surprise says:

      “Hundreds of thousands of people in New England could be without power for days, in the wake of a blockbuster mid-latitude storm that produced a patchwork of torrential rains and fierce winds across a broad swath from western New York to Maine. Prodded by a very dynamic upper-level trough, the storm featured an intense surface low that raced from the vicinity of New York to west of Montreal late Sunday night into Monday morning. The low qualified as a meteorological “bomb,” as its central pressure dropped 29 mb in a 24-hour period. South of this low, a strong cold front picked up the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe in the Northwest Atlantic and slammed them into the coast of Maine early Monday. All told, this “Franken-Philippe” storm could rack up damage on par with many landfalling Category 1 hurricanes.” https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-york-new-england-raked-weird-autumn-storm

  10. What it is says:

    The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs until November 30, currently ranks in 10th place for most named storms (16), 8th place for hurricanes (10), 3rd place for major hurricanes (6), and 7th place for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (224). Since six of the seven years with more ACE than 2017 ended up having at least one more named storm after November 1, past history suggests that an active season like 2017 should see at least one more named storm – Rina. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/november-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-season-not-over-yet

  11. Post-mortem says:

    “Unfettered construction raises U.S. hurricane costs” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-floods-insurance-specialreport/special-report-unfettered-construction-raises-u-s-hurricane-costs-idUSKBN1E61DH?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews “Across the country, newer construction in flood-prone areas generated more than $9 billion in claims for structural damage on the cash-strapped flood insurance program between 2000 and 2015. Flood-management authorities say that some of those claims probably never would have been filed had proper building controls and accurate flood maps been in place. Hurricanes Irma, which devastated Florida, and Harvey, which inundated vast sections of Texas, have already generated almost $7 billion in flood insurance claims paid.” (12/12/17)

  12. Santayana says:

    Harris County Officials Failed to Implement Their Own Disaster Plan After Hurricane Harvey : Much of the blame for the poor response to the disaster fell on the Red Cross, but Houston-area officials are not exempt from responsibility. https://psmag.com/news/failed-plans-for-hurricane-harvey “Seven months before Hurricane Harvey inundated the Houston area with a trillion gallons of water and led to widespread criticism of the Red Cross, Harris County adopted a disaster-preparation plan that’s key assumption was that the Red Cross would be slow to act.
    The 17-page document, entitled the “Mass Shelter Plan,” was unanimously approved by the county’s governing body on January 31st, 2017. ProPublica obtained the plan, which until now has not been public, as part of a public records request.

  13. Cone of Uncertainty says:

    “Intensifying Hurricane Florence poses extreme threat to Southeast and Mid-Atlantic” (Washington Post September 9 at 11:13 PM) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/09/09/florence-strengthens-to-hurricane-and-poses-extreme-threat-to-southeast-and-mid-atlantic/?utm_term=.62e167d306d9 “…The Hurricane Center predicts it will reach Category 4 intensity by Tuesday and maintain that intensity through landfall. It is not out of the question that Florence could become a Category 5 hurricane at some point. The official Hurricane Center forecast suggests its peak winds will reach 150 mph winds between Tuesday and Wednesday, just 7 mph below Category 5.
    Florence could sit over some part of the Mid-Atlantic for several days, similar to what Harvey did last year over eastern Texas. It has the potential to dump unthinkable amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast. Rainfall could begin Friday or Saturday and continue into the following week. Where exactly the zone of heaviest rain sets up is a big uncertainty. It could reasonably occur anywhere between the mountains and the coast.”

  14. Mariah says:

    “Atlantic hurricane season ramps up again with development of Leslie and Kirk” https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/the-tropics-are-heating-up-again-tropical-depression-kirk-and-subtropical-storm-leslie-churn-in-the-atlantic/70006140
    Also: “Tropical Storm Rosa is expected to become a hurricane later today and major hurricane by Thursday.” https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/09/26/tropical-storm-rosa-forecast-path-major-hurricane-thursday/1429712002/
    Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane Sept. 14. Economic research firm Moody’s Analytics estimated that the storm has caused around $44 billion in damage and lost output, one of the 10 costliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. The worst disaster, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, cost $192.2 billion in today’s dollars. Last year’s Hurricane Harvey cost $133.5 billion.

  15. Cassandra says:

    “Harvey, Irma, Maria: These three monster hurricanes, all of which struck U.S. shores at Category 4 in 2017, probably attained such strength because of Atlantic Ocean waters that were abnormally warm, says a new study published in the journal Science on Thursday.
    And, in future decades, as the ocean warms even more because of rising greenhouse gas concentrations from human activity, the study projects “even higher numbers of major hurricanes.”
    Considering the toll of the 2017 hurricane season, which unleashed 10 hurricanes in 10 weeks, and three of the five costliest hurricanes on record in Harvey, Irma and Maria, it is difficult to fathom the implications of similar circumstances repeating with even greater frequency.” (Washington Post 9/27/18) https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/09/27/study-warming-ocean-waters-intensified-devastating-atlantic-hurricane-season/?utm_term=.c6933ab4ebd1

  16. Augury says:

    “Cyclone Leslie slams into Portugal : Hurricane Leslie batters Portugal uprooting trees and cutting electricity supplies to 15,000 households.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/cyclone-leslie-slams-portugal-181014110331443.html “If Leslie had hit Portugal as a hurricane, it would have been the first time in recorded history that Europe had seen the landfall of a hurricane. As it happened, Leslie was officially a hurricane until re-classified as a post-tropical cyclone at 18:00 GMT by the National Hurricane Centre in Florida.”
    Leslie was dubbed a “zombie” hurricane as it first formed on September 23, only to meander through the Atlantic Ocean for weeks before making landfall. See https://3kbo302xo3lg2i1rj8450xje-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/44059100_2032177260181077_477313614118649856_n-800×658.jpg

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.