Future Hurricanes Likely To Be Worse Than Harvey

How powerful would Hurricane Harvey have been in 1880? How much stronger might it be in 2100?

❝ A single Hurricane Harvey has been more than anyone can bear. But to better prepare cities for future storms, researchers are preparing to re-watch Harvey thousands of times. They’ve already been studying earlier storms, and their conclusions don’t bode well for the decades to come.

❝ In the months and years after Superstorm Sandy’s 2012 assault on New Jersey and New York, Gary Lackmann, an atmospheric science professor at North Carolina State University, was asked how the event might be understood in light of human-driven global warming. He knew that the question everyone wants answered—did climate change cause the storm—wasn’t the right one. Hurricanes were around long before the industrial revolution. Two questions did, however, resonate:

How does climate change affect the frequency or intensity of huge storms?…

What would the weather pattern that sustained Sandy have spawned in a cooler past or a hotter future?…

RTFA for conclusions.

The body of Lackmann’s study ran before Hurricane Harvey. He’s adding that info to an ongoing evaluation. The more empirical data you have, the better. Especially in the political climate of crap “alternative facts” so loved by today’s conservatives.

20 thoughts on “Future Hurricanes Likely To Be Worse Than Harvey

    • Cassandra says:

      “A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/-150-billion-misfire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong …because the Bermuda high jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, which shifted
      the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma away from the biggest population center of Miami-Dade County. See also https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_fqmnY.9MNg/v1/800x-1.png – note cost of damages from Irma only reflects U.S. losses
      According to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia:
      “Simulations based on the paths and powers of some that rammed the U.S. 100 or more years ago show they were far more disastrous, or would be if they arrived today when the population is much more dense and there is far more, and far more expensive, property to destroy.
      One hurricane that raked the U.S. East Coast in 1893 was so furious the impact could have added up to $1 trillion. “They haven’t really happened in our modern economy,” Watson said, adding it’s only a matter of time. “We have so much stuff and so much infrastructure. Leave all the arguments about climate change aside; we are rapidly moving into that era where we are going to be seeing $50 billion, $100 billion storms, and I will not be surprised when we get to $300 billion.”

  1. p/s says:

    “Forecasters are eyeing the path of Hurricane Jose, as it circles close to the south-east coast of the USA, in case remnants of the storm impact Britain’s weather. Jose is weakening as it moves between the Bahamas, Bermuda and Puerto Rico and is forecast to do a slow, clockwise loop staying away from land. But experts are predicting it could regain energy towards the end of this week and head across the Atlantic, where it may eventually influence European weather patterns.” https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/forecasters-studying-path-hurricane-jose Meanwhile: “Violence Erupts on Desperate Caribbean Islands: ‘All the Food Is Gone’” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/americas/irma-caribbean-st-martin.html

  2. Postmortem says:
  3. Gene Augury says:

    “Tropical Storm Jose Could Threaten New York Next Week, National Hurricane Center Says” (Bloomberg Sept 15 2017) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-15/tropical-storm-jose-could-threaten-new-york-next-week-nhc-says Forecasters are also keeping an eye on Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee later today. Another system that’s about 1,200 miles east of the Windward Islands of the Caribbean should turn into Hurricane Maria next week. Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today as it moves north towards Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and the tourist resorts of Cabo San Lucas. Rain from the remnants of Norma could dampen portions of the U.S. Southwest by the middle of next week, the National Weather Service says.

  4. NXT says:

    September 18th at 12:00 PM EDT [Washington Post]: “Intensifying Hurricane Maria is a severe threat to the Caribbean and Puerto Rico; Jose to scrape Northeast coast” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/18/intensifying-hurricane-maria-is-a-severe-threat-to-caribbean-and-puerto-rico-jose-to-scrape-northeast-coast/
    Depiction of the Fujiwhara effect as it might play out with Jose and Maria, based on this morning’s run of the European model: tropicaltidbits.com.
    Meanwhile, as of 12:00 UTC Sep 18, 2017: Hurricane Norma has weakened and become a Tropical Storm off the coast of Baja California https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17E_tracks_latest.png In 1997 Hurricane Nora took an unusual path, making landfall twice as a hurricane in Baja California. Weakening quickly after landfall, its remnants lashed the Southwestern United States with tropical-storm-force winds, torrential rain and flooding.

  5. Cassandra says:

    “The 2017 Hurricane Season Really Is More Intense Than Normal” (NYT 9/19/17) https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/hurricanes-irma-harvey-maria.html It was only 25 days ago that Hurricane Harvey made landfall. You could be forgiven for thinking it’s been longer. After all, that was four hurricanes ago. …also, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might cost a combined $290 billion in the US: two storms producing double the economic damage of four in 2005, which included Katrina.
    Real time map: Tracking Hurricane Maria’s Path https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/18/world/americas/hurricane-maria-tracking-map.html

  6. Go figure says:

    “After Hurricane Irma ravaged the Caribbean island of St. Martin, local residents looked to a $17 million estate owned by President Donald Trump and were shocked by what they saw.
    Trump’s Chateau des Palmiers on Plum Bay beach in St. Martin managed to survive the devastation of Hurricane Irma without so much as a single roof tile damaged.
    According to USA Today, roughly 95 percent of St. Martin was destroyed when Hurricane Irma passed through the island on Sept. 6.” http://www.americanow.com/story/society/2017/09/14/trumps-st-martin-estate-survives-hurricane-destruction-photo

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