Fake President has nothing to do with the “Trump” Rally

Another Republican Golden Shower

❝ The other day, President Donald Trump shared a few thoughts about the stock market.

Like so many of the president’s statements, this one is objectively false. Our charge today is to set aside the political debate, and instead use his statement as an opportunity to explore ways to compare markets and rallies…

❝ No. 1. U.S. Presidential Rallies: As Bloomberg News reported the other day, “the ‘unprecedented’ stock market rally since his election right now isn’t big enough to crack the top five in presidential history.” As the accompanying chart shows, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 19 percent since the 2016 election. That rates better than three other post-presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2004 (7 percent), Bill Clinton in 1992 (10 percent), and Barack Obama in 2012 (16 percent).

❝ …The Trump rally clocks in at No. 7. While that is pretty good — remember that markets fell after some presidents won election — it is hardly unprecedented.

Just as an aside — I am on record as reminding people that all presidents get too much credit when things go right and too much blame when they go wrong. Using market performance as a basis of presidential prestige or lack thereof is the refuge of partisan hacks and scoundrels.

❝ No. 2. Global Rallies: As we have discussed before, looking at a market rally in the U.S. while ignoring gains overseas is a foolish approach to performance analysis…

❝ The president seems to be naïvely making absolute performance claims while ignoring the data on relative performance. Imagine a mutual fund or hedge fund manager making similar claims. The disciplinary fines would be enormous.

Either way, the investing public deserves better.

RTFA for a bit more detail and illustration from Barry Ritholtz. No matter, market gains since Election Day simply have been nothing out of the ordinary.

Trump, as usual, lies like a rug. The fake news comes from a fake president.

2 thoughts on “Fake President has nothing to do with the “Trump” Rally

  1. BOGUS POTUS says:

    Oct. 11, 2017: Fox News host Sean Hannity talks to President Trump at the Harrisburg Air National Guard base in Middletown, Pennsylvania. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Bj_ZODDno (excerpted transcript) @ at 18.04:
    Trump: …we have a one percent GDP [growth]. [A bugler begins playing “Retreat” in the background. ] …now I have to tell you, for the last quarter, you had three percent –
    Hannity: Three-two –
    Trump: And actually, three-two, they adjusted it upward. [Turns around] What a nice sound that is. Are they playing that for you or for me? [To the crowd] They’re playing that in honor of his ratings, did you see how good is ratings? He’s beating everybody! [Some of the crowd laugh, cheer and applaud, some do not respond.]
    Hannity: I think they’ll be higher tonight, I’m just guessing.
    [Bugler continues to play “Retreat.”]
    Trump: So the fact is that we really – we’re really rocking. [In the background, a large section of the crowd stands up.] We have 3.2 [percent GDP growth] – now, this next quarter coming up, I believe would have even been better. You know, we haven’t hit threes in a long time. So I guess it was ultimately determined it was 3.2 because they adjust upward, but we got hit with a few hurricanes as you probably heard. That’ll have, I assume, an impact.
    [Bugler continues to play “Retreat” in the background.]
    Hannity: Barack Obama was the first president in history that never hit three percent GDP growth in a single year of his presidency, which I think speaks volumes.
    Trump: Well you know, when I took over we were in the ones [around one percent GDP growth].
    [Bugler stops playing “Retreat.”]
    Trump: And if we hit – think of this – if we hit just one point, if we go up from two to three, we pick up $2.5 trillion, 2.5 trillion –
    Hannity: to the Treasury –
    Trump: …and we pick up millions of jobs. [Crowd applauds.] So it pays for the whole thing. So it really pays for it, so I think it’ll be great.
    [Segment ends, Hannity segways to commercial break.]
    Although Trump attended a military high school, the commander in chief appeared unaware of the music’s meaning. http://www.forthoodsentinel.com/news/rendering-honors-during-retreat-and-to-the-colors-continues-army/article_92aa17cf-9c0d-5e65-a7a6-bd809d2b6522.html
    See also “The making of Sean Hannity: How a Long Island kid learned to channel red-state rage” https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-making-of-sean-hannity-how-a-long-island-kid-learned-to-channel-red-state-rage/2017/10/09/540cfc38-8821-11e7-961d-2f373b3977ee_story.html

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