FIRE SCIENTISTS ARE CONFIDENT: THIS WILL GET WORSE

❝ As of July 31, more than 25,000 firefighters are committed to 140 wildfires across the United States—over a million acres aflame. Eight people are dead in California, tens of thousands evacuated, smoke and pyroclastic clouds are visible from space. And all any fire scientist knows for sure is, it only gets worse from here. How much worse? Where? For whom? Experience can’t tell them. The scientists actually are uncertain.

❝ Scientists who help policymakers plan for the future used to make an assumption. They called it stationarity, and the idea was that the extremes of environmental systems—rainfall, river levels, hurricane strength, wildfire damage—obeyed prior constraints. The past was prologue. Climate change has turned that assumption to ash…

❝ Wildfires were always part of a complex system. Climate change—carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases raising the overall temperature of the planet—added to the complexity. The implications of that will play out for millennia. “On top of that is interaction between the climate system, the ecosystem, and how we manage our land use,” Westerling says. “That intersection is very complex, and even more difficult to predict. When I say there’s no new normal, I mean it. The climate will be changing with probably an accelerating pace for the rest of the lives of everyone who is alive today.”

Fools who voted for Trump not only fooled themselves – they have condemned their children, grandchildren and generations to come to the new holocaust.

8 thoughts on “FIRE SCIENTISTS ARE CONFIDENT: THIS WILL GET WORSE

  1. McLeod says:

    The California Legislature voted Friday to allow power companies to raise electric bills to cover the cost of lawsuits from last year’s deadly wildfires amid fears that Pacific Gas & Electric Co., would otherwise face financial ruin. (PBS 8/1/18) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/california-approves-measure-to-pass-on-wildfire-costs
    Study shows health, reaction-time declines in firefighters (A/P 9/1/18) https://apnews.com/498fcf4809634da49dd02a0e605e9c82/Study-shows-health,-reaction-time-declines-in-firefighters Some 19,000 firefighters are currently in the field fighting nearly 40 large wildfires. Fourteen firefighters have died this year as wildfires have scorched about 3,500 square miles (9,000 square kilometers) and destroyed some 3,000 homes.
    “California has 129 million dead trees spread across 8.9 million acres. That’s a huge wildfire risk but no one can afford to cut them all down.” https://www.vox.com/2018/9/1/17800358/california-mendocino-wildfire-dead-trees “…Already, more than 876,000 acres have burned in California, compared to 228,000 last year at the same time. The Mendocino Complex Fire, now almost fully contained at more than 459,000 acres, is the single largest fire on record in state history. The largest fire before that, the Thomas Fire, was just put out in January this year.
    These recent fires have barely made a dent in the glut of dead trees, CalFire says, and peak fire season in Southern California is still to come later this year.”

  2. Cassandra says:

    Ecosystems across the world will dramatically transform as climate change’s effects increase, a new study published in the journal Science warns. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2018/09/01/climate-change-could-transform-arizona-forests-deserts-environment-study/1148294002/ The study says human-caused climate change could accelerate changes in vegetation around the globe, filling lush forests with flammable brush and worsening drought conditions where relief is needed most.
    “We’re talking about the same amount of change in 10-to-20 thousand years that’s going to be crammed into a century or two,” Stephen T. Jackson, director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Climate Adaptation Center and co-author of the new study, said in a statement. “Ecosystems are going to be scrambling to catch up.”
    (Includes link to “Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change” in Science 31 Aug 2018)

  3. Worser says:

    “Raging wildfires send scientists scrambling to study health effects : Blazes have created natural experiments in Montana and California towns and a monkey-breeding colony.” (Nature 9/7/18) https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06123-8 “Record-setting wildfires have burnt through northern California over the past month, blanketing huge swathes of the western United States in a smoky haze and destroying an area larger than London. Now scientists are hoping that the fiery summer will help them determine whether exposure to wildfire smoke damages health over the long term.
    Finding answers is becoming more urgent because the behavior of wildfires — in the United States and elsewhere — is expected to shift in the coming decades. Climate models predict that many more people worldwide will be exposed to toxic smoke as these blazes become more common and intense. US wildfires already produce about one-third of the country’s particulate-matter pollution, airborne particles that are small enough to enter and damage human lung tissue.
    …Researchers are also beginning to untangle how the composition of material burnt during a wildfire affects the body. Smoke from burning pine needles damaged the DNA of mice in a recent EPA study more than smoke from burning plastic did; burning eucalyptus was the most toxic to immune cells found in the animals’ lungs.”

  4. Hazel Hoe says:

    “Interstate 5, one of the country’s busiest roadways, stretching nearly 1,400 miles from Mexico to Canada, will remain closed indefinitely for a 45-mile stretch through fire-ravaged northern California.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/09/09/delta-fire-interstate-5-indefinitely-closed-northern-california/1252616002/ “The raging Delta Fire, which chased motorists from their vehicles and left a trail of burned-out vehicles in its wake last week, forcing state authorities to close I-5 on Wednesday afternoon, continued to burn mostly out of control on Sunday in Shasta and Trinity counties. It had burned 40,903 acres, according to InciWeb’s 7 p.m. PST update, and was listed at 5 percent containment.”

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