30 thoughts on “Here come the hurricanes!

  1. nicknielsensc says:

    If Florence stays centered on the projected path, I’ll see some tropical storm gusts, but not much more than that. If Florence the hurricane decides to visit Florence, SC, I’ll catch a good bit more, but will still be out of the main force of the storm. If she slides to the south more than that, she’ll come right up I-26 and I’ll be on the weather side of her.

    Not wishing destruction on anybody, but I’d just as soon she stayed to the north.

  2. nicknielsensc says:

    No worries. Florence will have spent most of her force on Florence by the time she gets here. The current forecast track has the eye (or what’s left of it) passing about 20 miles north, as a rapidly-weakening tropical storm turning into a tropical depression. Max sustained winds 45-50, with gusts up to 60, and that only on the leading edge.

    No flooding. We’re between three different watersheds; everything flows out. If we’re flooded here, the Colorado River is a salt-water estuary all the way back to Hoover Dam!

  3. Update says:

    “New wave forms as Tropical Storm Barry is expected to develop today and then grow into Hurricane Barry” (South Florida Sun Sentinel, Jul 11, 2019 8:42 AM) https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/fl-ne-barry-first-hurricane-watch-2019-20190711-u3e6ajldrjdkvoerjnl76smi3u-story.html See also “Expect six hurricanes, eight tropical storms this season, latest report says” https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-ne-colorado-state-hurricane-forecast-20190709-cdnqd7bepjbw3ktgxhemubohem-story.html

  4. Science be damned says:

    “Robotic Underwater Gliders Could Improve Hurricane Forecasts” (Forbes Aug 2, 2019) https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/08/02/robotic-underwater-gliders-could-improve-hurricane-forecasts/#580bf10e6967

    NOAA: “Gliders Patrol Ocean Waters with a Goal of Improved Prediction of Hurricane Intensity” (2014) https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keynotes_0714_gliderdeployment.html

    Underwater glider observations in support of the 2019 NOAA Hurricane Field Program are currently underway. During this year’s deployment, a total of 7-9 underwater gliders operated by NOAA/AOML will patrol critical ocean areas for hurricane intensification off Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/observations.php (takes a moment to load) Provides near real-time vehicle locations and observations

    “How the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 Became the Deadliest U.S. Natural Disaster” https://www.history.com/news/how-the-galveston-hurricane-of-1900-became-the-deadliest-u-s-natural-disaster

  5. Bonkers says:

    “Trump suggests ‘nuking hurricanes’ to stop them hitting America” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/26/donald-trump-suggests-nuking-hurricanes-to-stop-them-hitting-america-report According to US news website Axios, the US president said in a meeting with top national security and homeland security officials about the threat of hurricanes: “I got it. I got it. Why don’t we nuke them?” [See https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html ]
    The White House declined to comment on the Axios report. “We don’t comment on private discussions that the president may or may not have had with his national security team,” it said.

    Atlantic hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.

    • Third person says:

      Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump [2:25 AM – 26 Aug 2019]: “The story by Axios that President Trump wanted to blow up large hurricanes with nuclear weapons prior to reaching shore is ridiculous. I never said this. Just more FAKE NEWS!”
      The president’s tweet was posted as he participated in a press gaggle alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the G-7 summit in Biarritz, France, according to a White House pool report.
      Axios national political reporter Jonathan Swan, who co-authored the story with politics and White House editor Margaret Talev, responded to Trump’s denial on Monday. “I stand by every word in the story. He said this in at least two meetings during the first year and a bit of the presidency, and one of the conversations was memorialized,” Swan tweeted. “Not to mention that we gave the White House press team full visibility of everything we were reporting nine hours before publication. We published their statement in the story,” he added. Talev also weighed in on Twitter, writing: “We stand by our reporting.” https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/trump-nuke-hurricanes-1475223
      Trump on Monday skipped a session on climate, biodiversity and oceans attended by other world leaders, although White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said a senior administration official was there in his place.
      Trump has kept up his attacks on the media during his overseas trip, criticizing reporters’ coverage of the annual convocation since departing the White House on Friday evening.

    • What'll it be..? says:

      “With Puerto Rico under a hurricane watch on Tuesday, President Trump complained about “yet another big storm” heading toward the U.S. territory and lamented how much aid Congress had previously allocated for recovery efforts there, using an inflated figure.
      “Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end?” the president wrote on Twitter. “Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for ‘anywhere.’”
      As he has in the past, Trump dramatically overstated how much money Congress has allocated for recovery in the wake of Hurricane Maria in 2017. As of June 30, Congress had allocated $42.7 billion, with less than $14 billion reaching the island”. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-complains-of-yet-another-big-storm-as-puerto-rico-comes-under-a-hurricane-watch/2019/08/27/34dc5946-c8e6-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

      • Rolandito says:

        With Hurricane Approaching Puerto Rico, Trump Takes $155 Million From Disaster Relief And Gives It To ICE to bolster immigration enforcement https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/27/dhs-disaster-aid-immigration-1686247 (Politico 8/27/19)
        “The Trump administration plans to divert $271 million from various Department of Homeland Security accounts to beef up funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including $155 million in federal disaster aid. In a recent letter to acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan, Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) said the administration hasn’t provided an adequate justification for funneling money from FEMA’s disaster fund to an account that supports facilities for immigration court proceedings.
        The diversion of funds was reported on the same day that Trump complained about another hurricane heading for Puerto Rico, while lying about the amount of aid Puerto Rico has gotten.

        Dorian Will Hit Florida As Category 2 Hurricane, New Forecast Says (NPR August 28, 2019 8:15 AM ET) https://www.npr.org/2019/08/28/754984058/dorian-will-hit-florida-as-category-2-hurricane-new-forecast-says

        • Tom Osceola says:

          Hurricane Dorian could hit Florida as a Category 4 storm; President Trump says state ‘totally ready’ (South Florida Sun Sentinel, Aug 29, 2019 @ 11:51 AM) Category 4 storms have winds between 130 and 156 mph. It’s currently the second-highest hurricane-strength calculation. Several models indicate Dorian might track across the Florida peninsula and reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then strengthen again.
          On Sept. 2, 1935, an unnamed storm, the most intense Category 5 system to strike the U.S. coastline, barreled across the Florida Keys. Packing 185 mile per hour winds, the hurricane destroyed every structure in the upper Keys. This storm became known as the Great Labor Day Hurricane because the naming of hurricanes didn’t start until 1953.

          Interactive map:

          • p/s says:

            Friday marks the beginning of Florida’s King Tides, a term that refers to the highest tides in any given period and fall tides in Florida are generally the highest of the year because the ocean is at its warmest point. Combined with hurricane winds there’s a potential for significantly more dangerous storm surges.
            Warming oceans can make hurricanes more powerful and cause them to intensify quickly. Higher sea levels contribute to greater storm surge, and, since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, climate change is contributing to wetter storms.


  6. Storm porn says:

    (September 1 at 10:58 AM): With peak winds of 180 mph, Hurricane Dorian is the strongest storm on record to strike the northwestern Bahamas.
    These winds are the strongest so far north in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on record. Its pressure, down to 913 millibars, is stronger than Hurricane Andrew’s when it made landfall in south Florida in 1992. Only six Atlantic hurricanes since 1950 have had stronger winds than Hurricane Dorian’s, three of which occurred since 2005.
    [National Hurricane Center update at 930 AM EDT: Dorian’s wind Gusts over 200 mph, storm surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves. Adding to the storm surge, background tides will be running at some of their highest levels of the year this weekend into early next week because of the alignment among Earth, the sun and the moon, and the resulting gravitational “pull” on the ocean].
    Over the northern Bahamas, the storm’s core of devastating wind and torrential rain may sit for at least 24 hours as steering currents in the atmosphere collapse, causing Dorian to meander slowly, if not stall outright, for a time. After models run early Saturday shifted the storm track offshore Florida, some that were run late Saturday into early Sunday shifted it back closer to the Florida coast.

  7. Stormy says:

    The National Hurricane Center has released the first advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, which might become Tropical Storm Humberto. This advisory was released at 8 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Sept. 12. Forecasters also were tracking another tropical system in the Atlantic Thursday morning. This is the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

  8. Cassandra says:

    (9/20/19): “Tropical Storm Imelda enters the history books as one of the top five wettest tropical cyclones to ever strike the lower 48 states, with a maximum rainfall total of 43.39 inches. On Friday morning, floodwaters continued to block roads, damage homes and cause gridlock in the Houston metro area and especially in the vicinity of Beaumont and Port Arthur, where new flood warnings were issued for additional rainfall of up to four inches.
    That this storm comes just two years after Hurricane Harvey dumped an almost unimaginable 60.58 inches of rain on the same general area is no accident. In addition, other major rain events in Southeast Texas in the past five years have caused extensive disruptions and damage.
    Recent studies show that slow-moving tropical cyclones in the United States are becoming more frequent, and increased ocean heat content is supercharging the rainfall potential of such storms, making them more formidable rain producers than they otherwise would be.
    For example, a study published in the journal Earth’s Future in 2018 found that Hurricane Harvey’s gargantuan rainfall totals were directly related to record high ocean heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico. The oceans are absorbing the vast majority of extra heat from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, with temperatures increasing in the process.
    This is translating into additional water vapor, which storms tap into as fuel and then wring out like a wet sponge. If their forward speed slows to a crawl, as Harvey and Imelda did as tropical depressions, they can produce rainfall totals measured in feet rather than inches. As Tropical Storm Imelda formed off the Texas coast, it drew in moisture from gulf waters that were between 1.8 and 3.6 degrees above average for this time of year.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/20/flooded-again-climate-change-is-making-flooding-more-frequent-southeast-texasthanks-part-climate-change/

    • Chinese Hoax says:

      September 20, 2019: there are now four named tropical cyclones and three areas to watch in the Atlantic and east Pacific Ocean basins. As the tropical rainstorm spurred by Imelda’s remnants finally starts to taper in Texas, Bermuda eyes its second hurricane threat in 10 days. Meanwhile, additional waves shedding off the coast of Africa are likely to develop into cyclones within the coming week.

  9. Craic says:

    Remnants of category five hurricane Lorenzo could hit Ireland later this week : some models showing the remnants of the hurricane tracking due north and west of Ireland while others have Ireland and Britain directly in the path of Lorenzo. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the range of the hurricane remnants tracking as far east as Ireland and as far west as the coasts off Greenland. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/remnants-of-powerful-hurricane-lorenzo-could-hit-ireland-later-this-week-1.4034215
    According to the US National Hurricane Center Lorenzo is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.

  10. Surf's up says:

    “The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season exploded to life in September as nearly non-stop tropical activity stayed focused on the Western Atlantic. As the month wound down, a classic and powerful Atlantic hurricane spawned on the other side of the basin, just off the coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands. Hurricane Lorenzo went on to become a massive and intense Cat 5 monster, setting nearly every record in that half of the Atlantic along the way. As still-Cat 2 Lorenzo nears the Azores at press time, solid swell is heading to Europe — including the Quik Pro France — ahead of Lorenzo’s impending impact with Ireland and the United Kingdom by the end of the week.” (see animation) https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/2019-quiksilver-roxy-pro-france-official-forecast/64303

  11. Mañana says:

    NOAA Hurricane Research and Forecast system: Forecast Guidance for Current Active Storms https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/
    Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are called hurricanes, tropical storms, or tropical depressions. Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs until Nov. 30. In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane season begins May 15 and ends Nov. 30, according to the National Weather Service.

  12. Cassandra says:

    “Hurricane Laura was a deadly and damaging Category 4 Atlantic hurricane that tied the 1856 Last Island hurricane as the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the U.S. state of Louisiana, as measured by maximum sustained winds.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Laura
    (Sept 5, 2020): “Even in a place as storm-battered as the Louisiana Gulf Coast, where the names of prior hurricanes serve as waypoints that divide the past into what came before and what happened after, Hurricane Laura was a fearsome and memorable storm, by some measures the most powerful to hit the state since before the Civil War.
    For most in southwest Louisiana, there’s little debate that the devastation Laura wrought tops that of Hurricane Rita, the 2005 monster of a storm that’s been the yardstick in this part of the state for every hurricane since.
    But there’s a growing sense that, fearsome though Laura was and as certain as it is to remain seared into the memories of everyone unfortunate enough to be in its path, it’s gone largely unnoticed in the rest of the country, crowded out of the public consciousness and confined to fleeting dispatches on the nightly national news and occasional headlines buried inside newspapers.”
    (Sept 6): “Atlantic Ocean staying busy: Hurricane center tracking four tropical disturbances this week” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/06/tropical-storms-hurricanes-forecasters-watching-systems-week/5734093002/

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