Two-Thirds of Business Economists See Trump Recession by End-2020

Two-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey.

About 10 percent see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56 percent say 2020 and 33 percent said 2021 or later, according to the Aug. 28-Sept. 17 poll of 51 forecasters issued by the National Association for Business Economics…

Forty-one percent said the biggest downside risk was trade policy, followed by 18 percent of respondents citing higher interest rates and the same share saying it would be a substantial stock-market decline or volatility.

The reality of supply-side economics is failure. Trump’s added difference is in also increasing the national debt another trillion dollar$

5 thoughts on “Two-Thirds of Business Economists See Trump Recession by End-2020

    • moss says:

      Skip the supply-side Republican wizards and you actually bump into reliability. Which is why some of us actually make money in the market. 🙂

  1. 3card Monte says:

    Traders and investors will be glad to see the back of 2018. It’s been the worst rout since 1901, with almost $15 trillion wiped off the global equity market this year. (Bloomberg 12/17/18) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-17/in-charts-financial-markets-in-2019 “…economists put the chances of a recession in the coming year at 15 percent in the U.S. and 18 percent in the euro zone, according to Bloomberg surveys. Even the Brexit-battered U.K. economy is only at a 20 percent risk, while for Japan the likelihood rises to 30 percent. Perhaps those concerns about a recession are overdone.
    Or perhaps not. One trend was omnipresent in 2018 – the relentless flattening of the yield curve in the U.S. …An inverted yield curve – when yields on shorter-dated bonds are higher than their longer-dated counterparts – is often seen as an indicator of impending recession. It’s finally happened: yields on five-years are below those for two-years. A key question for 2019 will be how the feedback loop develops between the Federal Reserve’s policy intentions and the shape of the curve.”

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