Polar Vortex…Here it comes…Maybe

❝ Winter got off to a fast start in the Lower 48 even before it was technically winter. Waves of cold gripped the eastern two-thirds of the United States and several winter storms tracked across the region…

The polar vortex, the roaring river of air winding around the North Pole, holds the cards. What they reveal could be very disturbing and a harbinger of extreme winter weather in the Eastern United States…

❝ But when the vortex is disrupted, an ordinary winter can suddenly turn severe and memorable for an extended duration. “[It] can affect the entire winter,” Judah Cohen said…

Last week, he tweeted: “Confidence is growing in a significant #PolarVortex disruption in the coming weeks. This could be the single most important determinant of the weather this #winter across the Northern Hemisphere…”

“The longer it takes to happen, the bigger chance we have of a warmer winter,” Cohen said.

Um, OK. We’ll stay in touch.

6 thoughts on “Polar Vortex…Here it comes…Maybe

  1. No maybe says:

    Jan 15: “The swirling winds tens of thousands of feet high in the sky above the Arctic — the dreaded polar vortex — broke apart into three parts to ring in 2019. Now the eastern half of the United States is about to feel the consequences. Weather models project the onset of a severe and punishing winter weather pattern in just over 10 days, with extreme cold and heightened storminess. In fact, the transition to this harsh winter pattern has likely already begun.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/15/polar-vortex-has-fractured-eastern-us-faces-punishing-stretch-winter-weather-just-underway/?utm_term=.9f2d01d39cfd
    Jan 17: ‘Blockbuster’ storm heads east, could drop 40 inches of snow. Then an Arctic blast will freeze 200 million. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/17/winter-storm-east-coast-midwest-new-york-pennsylvania/2601621002/

  2. Wicked says:

    Jan 28: A blast of super-cold arctic air is bringing dangerous sub-zero cold to the U.S. Midwest and Northeast as the system cartwheels through the Dakotas into Chicago, Illinois, and on to New England. By Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, Chicago will hit an astounding 20-to-25 below-zero Fahrenheit, the National Weather Service said. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polar-vortex-2019-midwest-northeast_us_5c4ef275e4b06ba6d3bf0402
    NWS WPC @NWSWPC 7:19 AM – 27 Jan 2019: “Wind chills will fall to dangerous levels in the Upper Midwest this week, and should be the coldest since the mid-1990s in parts of the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind chills falling below -40 can cause frostbite on exposed skin in minutes.” https://twitter.com/NWSWPC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1089543524037652482&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2Fentry%2Fpolar-vortex-2019-midwest-northeast_us_5c4ef275e4b06ba6d3bf0402

  3. Update says:

    “Snowmageddon warnings in North America come from tropics more than Arctic stratosphere : First ever study of how North America’s four main weather regimes are affected by polar vortex strength” (University of Reading) https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/uor-swi122019.php
    “The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, also revealed that, unlike in Europe, the most extreme cold snaps affecting the whole of North America are not most likely to occur after a weak vortex. Instead, the shape of the vortex and conditions in the tropics were identified as stronger influences of these conditions.
    Simon Lee, atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and lead author of the study, said: “Despite the most extreme cold snaps experienced in North America often being described as ‘polar vortex outbreaks’, our study suggests vortex strength should not be considered as a cause.
    “We know that a weakened polar vortex allows cold air to flood out from the Arctic over Europe and Asia, but we found this is surprisingly not the case the other side of the Atlantic.
    “In fact, our work suggests we should actually look south to conditions around the equator, rather than north to the Arctic, for the causes of these widespread freezing conditions in North America.”
    Geophysical Research Letters, December 27, 2019: “Wintertime North American Weather Regimes and the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085592

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