4 thoughts on “Wall of Worry

  1. Fasten seatbelts says:

    “Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K. as ‘Doom and Gloom’ Spreads : Rate on 30-year Treasuries also slides to a record low” (Bloomberg August 14, 2019, 3:56 AM MDT) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit. A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following such an inversion, according to Credit Suisse.
    Investors are now demanding higher interest rates on short-term debt than they are longer-term debt, a phenomenon known as an “inverted yield curve.” Economists often give the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year special attention because inversions of that part of the curve have preceded every recession over the past 50 years.
    “Stocks are plunging as traders brace for a German recession and global turmoil as US-China trade war continues” (Insider 8/14/19) https://www.insider.com/stocks-drop-german-data-hong-kong-italy-china-argentina-woes-2019-8
    “Argentina just suffered the 2nd-biggest crash since 1950 for any stock market — and the nation is again on the brink of a financial crisis” (Markets Insider) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/argentina-on-brink-of-financial-crisis-market-rout-election-surprise-2019-8-1028443209
    “Brexit: Ministers to spend £300m to bring in emergency food and medicine supplies after no-deal” (Independent) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-emergency-food-medicine-supplies-airlifts-chris-grayling-ferry-a9056981.html
    “Hong Kong’s future hangs by a thread” (Financial Times) https://www.ft.com/content/3fd44d40-bced-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722
    Our nuclear powered cruise missile is better than yours, US tells Russia after deadly explosions and release of radiation…

  2. Cassandra says:

    30-year Treasury yield falls below 2% for the first time ever (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/us-bonds-30-year-treasury-yield-falls-below-2percent-for-first-time-ever.html
    Around 6 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was at 1.557%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was at 1.985%.
    The historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields comes less than 24 hours after the closely watched 10-year Treasury note and the 2-year inverted.
    At times of market turbulence, investors tend to flee to assets expected to either retain or increase in value — such as gold, the Japanese yen and government bonds.

  3. Yikes says:

    “At the moment, we have a president* who couldn’t name all the continents if you spotted him the one he lives on, a Secretary of State who is one step removed from counseling sedition as a congressman from Kansas, and a Secretary of Defense who has been a permanent employee since the end of June. Ordinarily, this would be considered to be a somewhat perilous situation. At the moment, however, there are three major crises overseas, at least two of which could plausibly lead to shooting wars, and one of which involves two nuclear powers spitting in each other’s eye.
    The other one has to do with Russia’s continuing problems with both nuclear power and the truth.” (Esquire 8/13/19) https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28690554/russia-nuclear-meltdown-kashmir-hong-kong-trump/

  4. Rue, Britannia says:

    Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, jamming ports and requiring a hard border in Ireland, official government documents leaked to the Sunday Times show. The Times said the forecasts compiled by the Cabinet Office set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/uk-faces-food-fuel-and-drugs-shortages-in-no-deal-brexit-times-citing-official-documents-idUSKCN1V70M6 “Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation’s infrastructure,” the Times reported.
    “The file, marked “official-sensitive” — requiring security clearance on a “need to know” basis — is remarkable because it gives the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s readiness for a no-deal Brexit.”
    The United Kingdom is heading towards a constitutional crisis at home and a showdown with the EU as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly vowed to leave the bloc on Oct. 31 without a deal unless it agrees to renegotiate the Brexit divorce – after more than three years of Brexit dominating EU affairs, the bloc has repeatedly refused to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement.

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