10 thoughts on “The only question about the Trump Recession is “When?”

  1. Power of the purse says:

    American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy, an enduring source of strength that is helping keep the United States out of recession and drawing a sharp contrast with the rest of the world.
    But as a number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.
    Low unemployment, rising wages and easy credit have given consumers the confidence and ability to spend in recent months. That has proved crucial as spending by U.S. businesses has declined, U.S. manufacturing has fallen into a funk, and the economies of many other large countries, including Germany, have begun to shrink.
    The strength of the consumer has convinced many business leaders that the U.S. economy won’t go into recession anytime soon, and it is the basis for optimism at the White House that it will remain strong into the 2020 election. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/american-consumers-are-holding-up-the-global-economy-but-for-how-long/2019/08/17/9eb20740-c066-11e9-a5c6-1e74f7ec4a93_story.html

    • Cassandra says:

      “The U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Officially Here” https://www.ccn.com/u-s-housing-market-crash-officially-here/ “Sales of new single-family homes in the US fell in September by 0.7 percent to 701,000 units. The August reading also witnessed a downward revision to 706,000 units as compared to the originally reported 713,000 units.
      But what’s alarming is that the monthly price decline was the biggest seen since September 2014 despite tight inventories, a sign that a US housing market crash is here. The median price of a new house slid 8.8 percent year over year in September to $299,400. The month-over-month decline came in at 7.9 percent.
      Just last month, Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller predicted that home prices are headed for a crash.” https://www.ccn.com/us-housing-market-crash/

  2. Alfred E. says:

    “Steel Yourself for the Trump Slump : It’s getting harder to ignore the threat this president poses to the U.S. and world economies.” Bloomberg Editorial Board, August 19, 2019, 3:30 AM MDT https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-19/trump-recession-steel-yourself-for-a-trade-war-slump
    “Trump is convinced there is a conspiracy to distort economic data and exaggerate the prospect of a recession” https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-claims-conspiracy-behind-recession-warnings-report-2019-8
    “There is no recession in sight,” the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on “Fox News Sunday.” https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-white-house-economy-us
    White House trade adviser Peter Navarro similarly brushed off concerns of an impending recession, telling CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” that the yield curve — a critical economic indicator related to US Treasury bonds that, when inverted, often precedes recessions — was not “technically” inverted last week. https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/18/politics/recession-white-house-economic-advisers-larry-kudlow-peter-navarro-cnntv/index.html
    Last week the Washington Post reported that some in the administration worried about a looming recession but were not making any formal plans for it, believing that doing so could help precipitate a crash. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-banking-on-strong-economy-to-win-reelection-frets-over-a-possible-downturn/2019/08/15/04a85352-bf67-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html
    9 key countries are on the verge of recession, driving fears the U.S. could follow (8/15/19) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/15/key-countries-are-verge-recession-driving-fears-us-could-follow/
    These people predicted the 2008 recession and were laughed at! https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/these-people-predicted-the-2008-recession-and-were-laughed-at/story/283071.html

  3. Alternative facts says:

    “We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they’re loaded up with money,” President Trump said on Sunday. “I don’t think we’re having a recession.” “The fact is, the fundamentals of our economy are very strong.” Senior adviser Kellyanne Conway told reporters Monday August 19th.

  4. Santayana says:

    President Donald Trump said Sunday he could declare the escalating U.S.-China trade war as a national emergency if he wanted to. “In many ways this is an emergency,” Trump said of the ongoing trade battle between the world’s top two economies.
    When asked if he had second thoughts about Friday’s move to escalate the trade war with China, Trump said “Yup.” “I have second thoughts about everything,” he added.
    Hours later, the White House issued a statement saying that Trump meant to say that he wished he had raised tariffs on Beijing even higher. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/trump-on-us-china-trade-war-i-could-declare-a-national-emergency.html

    The Tariff Act of 1930 (codified at 19 U.S.C. ch. 4), commonly known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff or Hawley–Smoot Tariff,[1] was a law which implemented protectionist trade policies in the United States. It was sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, and was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. The act raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.
    The tariffs under the act – not including duty-free imports – were the second-highest in the United States in 100 years, exceeded by a small margin by the Tariff of 1828. The Act and following retaliatory tariffs by America’s trading partners were major factors of the reduction of American exports and imports by more than half during the Depression. Although there is disagreement about the scale of its effect, the consensus view among economists and economic historians is that “The passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff exacerbated the Great Depression.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act

    • Déjà Vu says:

      CNBC Aug 28 2019 @ 4:03 AM EDT (Updated 10 min ago)
      https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/us-bonds-key-yield-curve-inverts-further-as-30-year-hits-record-low.html
      “The 30-year bond yield dropped to as low as 1.907% early Wednesday morning, breaking its prior all-time low of 1.916% clinched earlier in August. The 30-year rate later moved off those lows to trade at 1.916%, still below yields on U.S. debt of far shorter duration such as 3-month and 1-month bills.
      The yield curve inversion, meanwhile, continued to worsen on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slumped further below that of the 2-year note — at 1.454% and 1.5%, respectively — after closing inverted for the second day in a row on Tuesday. Yields fall as prices rise.”

  5. Harbinger says:

    Earnings growth estimates have come down drastically this year. Last December, analysts estimated S&P 500 earnings growth for the year would be around 7.6%, according to FactSet. That number is now around 2.3%.
    Goldman Sachs and Citigroup strategists last month reduced 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates for the S&P 500, citing a sluggish economy, trade war threats and potential currency devaluations.

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