Trump Recession gets closer…

❝ Trade-policy uncertainty is holding back global economic growth and may weigh on the world economy into 2020, according to a Federal Reserve research note that puts some hard numbers on an argument the US central bank has made for months.

❝ The rise in trade conflicts in the first half of 2018 “accounts for a decline in the level of global GDP of about 0.8 per cent by the first half of 2019.”…

“Had trade tensions not escalated again in May and June 2019, the drag on GDP would have subsequently started to ease,” they add. “However, renewed uncertainty since May of 2019 points to additional knock-on effects that may push down GDP further in the second half of 2019 and in 2020.”

And on and on and on…

5 thoughts on “Trump Recession gets closer…

  1. Hunky-dory says:

    “There is no danger that Titanic will sink. The boat is unsinkable and nothing but inconvenience will be suffered by the passengers.” (Phillip Franklin, White Star Line vice-president, 1912)

    September 8, 2019: “It’s incredible what’s happening. Our economy is strong. Our country is great. We’ve never been at a better position.”

  2. Cassandra says:

    “The Trumponomics experiment is failing before our eyes”
    “…Trump ran on a platform of ignoring the rules of economics and turning personal grievances into policy. Now we know what that can do to the mightiest economy on the planet.
    Trade wars have disrupted agriculture and manufacturing, ripping up supply chains and costing the government billions in aid. Erratic policies have spooked Wall Street and exhausted and frustrated our allies. The world is now a place where the United States cannot be trusted, and that is a world where growth is slower. Just about every respectable economist in the game told Trump this would happen, but he and his allies didn’t want to hear it.
    So now we’re here, in a moment that the World Trade Organization says could produce “a destructive cycle of recrimination.” When there is no trust between counterparties in markets and everyone gets desperate, there can be unintended consequences. Monetary and fiscal policies will shift as countries try to get used to a world growing more slowly, and this could, the WTO said, “destabilize volatile financial markets” and “produce an even bigger downturn in trade.”
    Sometimes rules are rules for a reason.”

  3. Tinkerbell says:

    Last week the Fed announced that it would start purchasing $60 billion a month in securities from the open market – using money it will electronically print for that purpose in order to keep interest rates low and help the economy grow.
    Clap your hands if you believe in consensus reality…
    Meanwhile: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns ‘there’s a recession ahead’

  4. Alfred E. says:

    “U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, raising fears that a slowdown in the American manufacturing sector could be starting to bleed into the consumer side of the economy.
    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales dropped 0.3% last month as households slashed spending on building materials, online purchases and especially automobiles. The decline was the first since February.”

  5. Cassandra says:

    “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell plans to warn lawmakers Wednesday that the ballooning federal debt could hamper Congress’ ability to support the economy in a downturn, urging them to put the budget “on a sustainable path.”
    “Powell suggested such fiscal aid could be vital after the Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate three times this year, leaving the central bank less room to lower rates further in case of a recession.
    “The federal budget is on an unsustainable path, with high and rising debt,” Powell said in prepared remarks he planned to deliver at 11 a.m. Wednesday before the Joint Economic Committee. “Over time, this outlook could restrain fiscal policymakers’ willingness or ability to support economic activity during a downturn.”
    Powell also reiterated that the Fed is likely done cutting rates unless the economy heads south.”

    According to a 2018 study by the Federal Reserve, the richest 10% of Americans have 70% of all U.S. wealth, up from 60% in 1989. The wealth of the richest 1% showed the largest increase over that same period, from 23% to 32% Economist Gabriel Zucman of the University of California said that the current wealth gap parallels that to the years leading up to the Great Depression. Basing his economic predictions on Mr. Zucman’s analysis, Jesse Colombo of Real Investment Advice said that the current wealth inequity is the byproduct of an ever expanding bubble in the prices of stocks and bonds.

    In 1929, a study was done that proved that the top 1% of Americans had the same combined income as the bottom 42% of America. The same 1% controlled 30% of bank savings in America while 80% of Americans had no savings at all. These 2 facts show that America in the 1920’s had a huge unequal distribution of wealth and it helped contribute to the Great Depression.

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