Study of Coronavirus patients finds 2.3% death rate

Researchers from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention…describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.

The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe…

Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients—all in critical condition—died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.

A smaller study…based on 52 critically ill patients at a Wuhan hospital confirms this finding…

In comparison to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses, which were both identified in the past 20 years, COVID-19 is likely more highly transmissible but not as deadly, the researchers noted. (SARS had a CFR of 9.6%; MERS has a CFR of 34.4%.) And unlike SARS and MERS, hospital-based outbreaks do not seem to be hallmark of COVID-19 at this time.

So, the statistics give me some confidence. On the negative side, I’ve had pneumonia once – surviving readily. But, once is sufficient to enable greater susceptibility. On the plus side, even though I’m a reasonably ancient radical, I’m more than average fit, haven’t smoked in 60 years (though I was a heavy smoker before), knocked off 75 lbs a few years back and only fluctuate 2-3 lb since and never miss a day with dedicated exercise walking and a lean nutritious diet.

We are a self-quarantined family, anyway. A nice way to describe proto-hermits, quite happy to stay in touch with society via the Web, entertainment the same, news the same. I’ve been online since before the WWW existed, 1981-ish. We live out of town in a beautiful New Mexico setting among a somewhat-scattered community. We wave to folks driving by.

Weekly grocery shopping is a Walmart – pickup order until this blows over. And Trader Joe’s same as usual just because it’s truly fun shopping. We know everyone working there since they opened in Santa Fe about 16 years ago.