Study of Coronavirus patients finds 2.3% death rate

Researchers from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention…describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.

The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe…

Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients—all in critical condition—died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.

A smaller study…based on 52 critically ill patients at a Wuhan hospital confirms this finding…

In comparison to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses, which were both identified in the past 20 years, COVID-19 is likely more highly transmissible but not as deadly, the researchers noted. (SARS had a CFR of 9.6%; MERS has a CFR of 34.4%.) And unlike SARS and MERS, hospital-based outbreaks do not seem to be hallmark of COVID-19 at this time.

So, the statistics give me some confidence. On the negative side, I’ve had pneumonia once – surviving readily. But, once is sufficient to enable greater susceptibility. On the plus side, even though I’m a reasonably ancient radical, I’m more than average fit, haven’t smoked in 60 years (though I was a heavy smoker before), knocked off 75 lbs a few years back and only fluctuate 2-3 lb since and never miss a day with dedicated exercise walking and a lean nutritious diet.

We are a self-quarantined family, anyway. A nice way to describe proto-hermits, quite happy to stay in touch with society via the Web, entertainment the same, news the same. I’ve been online since before the WWW existed, 1981-ish. We live out of town in a beautiful New Mexico setting among a somewhat-scattered community. We wave to folks driving by.

Weekly grocery shopping is a Walmart – pickup order until this blows over. And Trader Joe’s same as usual just because it’s truly fun shopping. We know everyone working there since they opened in Santa Fe about 16 years ago.

3 thoughts on “Study of Coronavirus patients finds 2.3% death rate

  1. Old and in the way says:

    A virus’s potential infectivity is described by its reproduction number called R0, or R naught ( https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers ). It’s a theoretical limit that researchers would expect to see when a disease-causing organism hits a population where no one is immune, as is the case with the new coronavirus.
    Based on their data and calculations, the authors of the Chinese study estimate the novel coronavirus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning each case patient could infect more than 2 other people. If accurate, this makes the 2019 nCoV more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R0 of 1.80 (interquartile range: 1.47 to 2.27) and killed between 20 million and 100 million people worldwide – at a time when the global population totaled just 1.8 billion.
    According to the CDC the Case-fatality rates (CFR) for the 1918 pandemic were 2.5% https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article
    For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population. Historically, measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) have been reported to vary from 0.1% in the developed world to as high as 30% in emergency settings.

    “The vaccine that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and drugmaker Moderna have been developing to combat the coronavirus is ready to be tested on humans, NIAID director Anthony Fauci told the Wall Street Journal.
    The rapidly developed vaccine will be tested on 20–25 healthy volunteers in April to determine whether two doses will be safe and generate an immune response to protect against infection. Results will be available in July or August, Fauci told WSJ.” https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-human-clinical-trial-ff89108d-87b0-4948-a299-59ee3369eb83.html

    Last Wednesday Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, a former drug company executive and pharmaceutical lobbyist, told a congressional hearing that when a coronavirus vaccine becomes available there’s no guarantee that it will be affordable for all Americans.
    On Sunday, Axios broke news about problems with government-made test kits for the coronavirus that have resulted in the US being far behind nations like China and South Korea when it comes to conducting large-scale testing. https://www.axios.com/cdc-lab-coronavirus-contaminated-6dc9726d-dea3-423f-b5ad-eb7b1e44c2e2.html Those problems make the Trump administration’s refusal to take the World Health Organization (WHO) up on its offer to provide testing kits look extremely questionable. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

  2. Update says:

    World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that data has shown about 3.4% of confirmed COVID-19 cases have died globally, a huge increase in previous estimates which have ranged between 1-2%. Generally the seasonal flu kills less than 1% of those infected, Tedros said by way of comparison.
    “Containment is possible,” stressed Tedros, warning countries dealing with their first cases that the actions they take “today will be the difference between a handful of cases, and a larger cluster.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coronavirus-health-who/coronavirus-more-deadly-than-flu-but-containable-whos-tedros-idUSKBN20Q2G6

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