Fake President’s fake economist predicts few supply line problems

This was published Sunday. Figured I’d wait a day or two to see how predictions start to pan out.

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow expressed confidence that U.S. supply lines and the workforce would be largely unaffected by the coronavirus outbreak Sunday.

“I’m going to say yes, knowing there may be some exceptions…” Kudlow told CBS’ Margaret Brennan, asked if Americans would be well-positioned to feed themselves amid images of runs on grocery stores…but added “the employment story may become more tenuous in the weeks ahead.”

Kudlow predicted that the Senate will take up a raft of measures addressing the virus, whose provisions include paid sick leave for some workers and free virus testing, “pretty rapidly.”…

“We have lots of ways and means to make sure nobody falls through the cracks,” Kudlow added.

So, couple days later, Mnuchin is predicting 20% unemployment. We had the fun and games through the first week of shopping with large-scale numbers beginning to show on the infection rate and concurrent death rate. The greater toilet paper hoard began. Every region displayed different shortages. And the response from the government side, from the White House to the Republican-controlled Senate has been predictable and inane.

Trump finally discovered the infection rate of COVID-19. Someone must have finally explained in words of two syllables or less what each infection spreading to 2.3 people per contact works out to in street math.

And Kudlow has never been a learned, trained economist. He’s a journalist who worked for a newspaper that reported on economics among other topics on Wall Street. Got him a popular spot on television. Proved to be a hit with conservative and rightwing idealogues…and that was enough to get the gig and title from a fake president who wouldn’t know an economist if one bit him on the ass.

Like his boss, El Trumpo…Kudlow will continue to devote his time aiding any large corporation whose profits – not their people – might fall through the cracks

21 thoughts on “Fake President’s fake economist predicts few supply line problems

  1. Hey Rube says:

    (3/18/2020, 10:20 AM): The US government is reportedly preparing for the coronavirus pandemic to last 18 months or longer and result in “significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual US consumers.” https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/us-govt-expects-18-month-pandemic-with-widespread-supply-shortages/
    A 100-page US government plan was leaked to The New York Times, which today published an article summarizing the highlights.
    (NYT) “U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages : The 100-page federal plan laid out a grim prognosis and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html
    “PanCAP Adapted U.S.Government COVID-19 Response Plan March 13, 2020” [UNCLASSIFIED FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY / NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE] .pdf https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

  2. Gerald McBoing-Boing says:

    “3 Reasons Dow Jones’ Sudden Recovery Stinks of a Dead Cat Bounce” https://www.ccn.com/3-reasons-dow-jones-500-point-jump-stinks-of-a-dead-cat-bounce/

    “A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery of asset prices from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery — or small rallies — where prices temporarily rise. The name “dead cat bounce” is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.” https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp

  3. Liar's Poker says:

    (March 20, 2020) “Stocks close down, log worst week since 2008” https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-032020/index.html
    Also: “Famed hedge fund Bridgewater predicts the coronavirus will lead to $4 trillion in lost corporate revenue for both public and private businesses in the U.S., according to a report the firm published Friday.” https://www.bridgewater.com/research-library/daily-observations/Greg-Jensen-the-coronavirus-4-trillion-hit-to-us-corporations/ The firm projects a 6% decline in US GDP for 2020, with the biggest hit during the second quarter, and also estimates a decline of $12 trillion for global businesses in 2020.

    Ray Dalio, who founded Bridgewater, is famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis.

  4. Balloonist says:

    “Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, said on Saturday that negotiators are doubling the size of a forthcoming coronavirus stimulus package as they try clinch an agreement.
    Kudlow said the size of the package would be approximately 10 percent of the county’s gross domestic product (GDP), calling it a “very large package.”
    When a reporter noted that 10 percent would be more than $2 trillion, he added: “That’s correct.”
    The decision is a significant uptick from the $1 trillion request initially submitted by the administration.” https://thehill.com/policy/finance/488795-kudlow-coronavirus-stimulus-package-will-be-more-than-2-trillion

  5. Déjà vu says:

    “Top Economists See Some Echoes of Depression in U.S. Sudden Stop” (Bloomberg March 22, 2020) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/top-economists-see-some-echoes-of-depression-in-u-s-sudden-stop “The U.S. is entering a recession. The ultimate fear is that could turn into a protracted malaise that has some flavor of a depression.
    …as business activity halts and layoffs surge, some prominent economy watchers — including former White House chief economists Glenn Hubbard and Kevin Hassett and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder — have drawn comparisons to the Great Depression, though they’ve stopped well short of forecasting another one.
    Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Maury Obstfeld said the world hasn’t seen a synchronized interruption in economic output in decades. The best example the University of California, Berkeley, professor can think of: “Well, maybe the Great Depression.”
    The U.S. undoubtedly will suffer a huge economic contraction as businesses close and Americans stay home. By some estimates, the economy is headed toward its worst quarter in records since 1947. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects gross domestic product to shrink at an annualized rate of 14% in the April-June period while Bank of America Corp. and Oxford Economics both see a 12% drop. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 24% plunge.
    While that’s an enormous wallop, it’s only one quarter. In the Great Depression of 1929-33, the entire economy shriveled by roughly a quarter as unemployment neared 25%.
    Recessions, which refer to periods of significant, broad-based declines in economic activity, vary in length. Depressions, of which there is only one since 1900, require the downturn to last for a long time, perhaps years.
    Whether the coming contraction proves to be prolonged depends a lot on how long it takes to check the contagion.
    “Unless this virus miraculously disappears form the population over the course of the next few months, it is a reasonable scenario that we might be in this lockdown setting for quite a while, measured in quarters,” said Harvard University professor James Stock, who is a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research panel that dates the timings of recessions.
    If everybody stays home for six months, “it is going to be like the Great Depression,” Hassett, who’s returning to the White House to advise on economic matters, told CNN on Thursday.
    The downturn’s depth and duration will depend on the economic policy response. It was policy mistakes — particularly by the Fed — that turned the contraction nearly a century ago into a depression.”

  6. Judas Goat says:

    Trump advisor Larry Kudlow admits he was wrong about coronavirus being ‘contained’ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-kudlow-admits-he-was-wrong-about-disease-being-contained.html ““Nobody could have predicted or expected this,” Kudlow said on CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

    “Intelligence reports warned about a pandemic in January. Trump reportedly ignored them.”
    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/21/21189179/coronavirus-trump-intelligence-reports-warned-pandemic “As Trump reportedly received intelligence reports about the seriousness of the coronavirus threat, he continued to downplay its severity in public.”

    • Inside job says:

      In late February, the Trump administration was publicly playing down the severity of the worsening coronavirus epidemic. But in private, White House officials had a different story — and that information was shared with top traders who made fortuitous bets against the market.

      Trump advisers conceded concerns about the coronavirus in private meetings with board members of the conservative Hoover Institution on Feb. 24, Kate Kelly and Mark Mazzetti of The Times report. Larry Kudlow, the White House’s chief economic adviser, told the group that the virus was “contained in the U.S., to date, but now we just don’t know,” hours after saying on CNBC that containment efforts were “pretty close to airtight.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/stock-market-coronavirus-trump.html
      Kudlow confirmed to the New York Times that he had made the remarks at the Hoover meeting, adding that in his mind, they were essentially the same as his remarks on CNBC.
      ‘There was never any intent on my part to misinform,’ he said, noting that the number of cases in the United States at the time was no more than 20, and that he had expected travel restrictions to limit further spread.
      William Callanan, a hedge fund veteran and member of the board of the Hoover Institution, wrote a memo summarizing the private meetings that was widely circulated and reached four investment firms within the span of a day. By the time trading closed on Feb. 26, U.S. stock markets had fallen nearly 300 points from the previous week’s high.
      While the stock market was already spiraling downwards as coronavirus fears expanded, traders who saw Callanan’s description of the sessions noted the importance of the warnings. “The president’s aides appeared to be giving wealthy party donors an early warning of a potentially impactful contagion at a time when Mr. Trump was publicly insisting that the threat was nonexistent,” The Times reported. https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/10/14/trump-officials-reportedly-warned-hoover-board-members-of-covid-19-risk-in-february/

  7. Lullaby says:

    President Trump’s economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said Sunday that the administration still believes the coronavirus pandemic “is going to be a question of weeks and months.” https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/490046-kudlow-administration-still-believes-pandemic-is-going-to-be-a When host Martha Raddatz pushed Kudlow on how he could be sure the economic effects of the virus would not be long-term, Kudlow said, “I can’t guarantee it. I can’t wave the magic wand. I wish I could.”
    Also this morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told “Fox News Sunday” host Chris Wallace that the U.S. economy would bounce back later this year to levels seen before the coronavirus outbreak began. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/490042-mnuchin-us-will-bounce-back-after-we-kill-this-virus-and-reopen

  8. Hunky-dory says:

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Thursday the U.S. economy is in an emergency and is deteriorating “with alarming speed.” His remarks came shortly after the central bank unveiled over $2 trillion in new loans to keep the economy afloat as much of the nation goes into a lockdown to fight the spread of the deadly coronavirus. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-chair-powell-says-us-economy-deteriorating-with-alarming-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak

    “Global food supply chain at risk due to pandemic” https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/04/08/coronavirus-covid-19-food-supply-chain-defterios-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn
    ‘A disastrous situation’: mountains of food wasted as coronavirus scrambles supply chain https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/us-coronavirus-outbreak-agriculture-food-supply-waste
    “Arrivals of agricultural commodities at key markets have fallen to a fraction of levels seen before a 21-day nationwide lockdown was imposed, data analysed by BloombergQuint showed. The drop in arrivals of agricultural commodities signals a disrupted supply chain ahead of the crucial harvesting season. This, despite food items being classified as essential commodities. Broken supply chains are also leading to greater volatility in prices, particularly for perishable items.” https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/farm-arrivals-plunge-despite-efforts-to-keep-agricultural-supply-chains-moving
    “Lawmakers demand answers on Kushner supply chain influence” https://news.yahoo.com/lawmakers-demand-answers-kushner-supply-144551715.html

  9. Hey, Rube! says:

    “Stock Market Bears Freak Out As Desperate Fed Plots Junk Bond Feast : The Federal Reserve will now buy “junk” bonds and stock market bears are deeply worried it could spark a much more serious economic collapse.” https://www.ccn.com/stock-market-bears-freak-out-as-desperate-fed-plots-junk-bond-feast/
    “Coronavirus putting world on track for new Great Depression, says WTO : International trade body predicts commerce could shrink up to 32% and warns against 30s-style protectionism” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-putting-world-on-track-for-new-great-depression-says-who
    “Recession vs. economic depression: What’s the difference, and why it matters” https://www.cnet.com/how-to/recession-vs-economic-depression-whats-the-difference-and-why-it-matters/

  10. Update says:

    One of the country’s largest pork processing facilities is closing until further notice as employees fall ill with Covid-19. The closure puts the country’s meat supply at risk, said the CEO of Smithfield, which operates the plant.
    “The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” the meat processor’s chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
    “It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running,” he said. “These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html
    Smithfield Foods is owned by the Chinese-based WH Group. The company, which is known as Shineway Group outside of Asia, bought Smithfield Foods in 2013. WH Group is the largest pork producer in the world.
    The company announced on Sunday that it was closing its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, plant after nearly 300 employees there tested positive for coronavirus, the Associated Press reported. The plant is one of the largest pork processing centers in America, and is responsible for producing 18 million servings of food per day.
    The Department of Agriculture has said there is no evidence that COVID-19 has been transmitted through food or its packing, the AP reported. https://apnews.com/0cd7680d2d221944ed05f86691bb3537

  11. C'mon Get Happy! says:

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that he thinks the United States economy will bounce back to the position it was in before the coronavirus pandemic in a matter of “months,” a sunny prediction at odds with many economists who see the US as entering a historic economic downturn. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/19/21227061/steve-mnuchin-economy-recession-growth
    “The comments from Mnuchin, who prior to being appointed to his position worked in finance and had no policy qualifications for his job, are not in line with mainstream economic prognostications about the unfolding situation or predictions from scientists and the medical community on how long distancing may be necessary.”
    [Mnuchin was picked because he raised millions for Trump’s presidential campaign] https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/29/13698804/steve-mnuchin-treasury-trump

  12. Harvest of shame says:

    USDA let millions of pounds of food rot while food-bank demand soared : State officials and growers say Trump’s Agriculture Department has been woefully slow to respond to farm crisis caused by coronavirus. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/26/food-banks-coronavirus-agriculture-usda-207215 “Tens of millions of pounds of American-grown produce is rotting in fields as food banks across the country scramble to meet a massive surge in demand, a two-pronged disaster that has deprived farmers of billions of dollars in revenue while millions of newly jobless Americans struggle to feed their families.”

    1.5 mile-long line of cars waiting outside a drive-thru food bank in Miami that gives out 2.5 million meals per week as coronavirus effects leave millions hungry.

    [video src="https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2020/04/15/626752137078001010/480x270_MP4_626752137078001010.mp4" /]

  13. Old McDonald says:

    As Food Supply Chain Breaks Down, Farm-To-Door CSAs Take Off (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2020/05/10/852512047/as-food-supply-chain-breaks-down-farm-to-door-csas-take-off
    Federal and state governments are also now taking a page from CSAs. As part of its coronavirus relief, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has put out a call for $3 billion in contracts for farmers to produce and deliver fresh produce and dairy boxes to food banks, many of which are struggling to support the growing ranks of Americans who are hurting and out of work. See https://www.ams.usda.gov/selling-food-to-usda/farmers-to-families-food-box

  14. Lullaby says:

    “In the day following news that President Trump has tested positive for COVID-19, the administration has not produced any reliable experts to inform the public about the president’s condition. Instead — in a disturbing counter-indicator — it sent out Lawrence Kudlow, who told Fox News that the president has a “very moderate case.” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/larry-kudlow-trump-coronavirus-moderate.html

    “You are getting very, very sleepy…your eyelids are getting heavy…so heavy that you cannot hold them up.”

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