‘Accurate’ estimate of Covid-19 casualties = US death toll to exceed 68,000


News 18

Scientists have developed a new mathematical model that they say can accurately estimate the death toll linked to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, and around the world.

The model, published in the journal Mathematics, predicted that the death toll as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 in the US would eventually reach about 68,120…

“Based on data available on April 28, the model showed that the COVID-19 pandemic might be over in the US, meaning no more American deaths, by around late June 2020,” said Hoang Pham, a professor at Rutgers University in the US.

“But if testing and contact tracing strategies, social-distancing policies, reopening of community strategies or stay-at-home policies change significantly in the coming days and weeks, the predicted death toll will also change,” Pham said.

Just another reason to ignore the tripe issued periodically from the Trump Re-election Headquarters…somewhere in a bunker under the White House.

2 thoughts on “‘Accurate’ estimate of Covid-19 casualties = US death toll to exceed 68,000

  1. Fiddle-de-dee says:

    The Trump administration projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June.
    The interagency report from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of the month, a significant rise from the current rate.
    White House spokesman Judd Deere said: “This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting. This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed.” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-trump-administration-projects-3000-deaths-per-day-by-june.html
    Meanwhile: The U.S. Treasury Department plans to borrow nearly $3 trillion between April and June to bankroll the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.npr.org/2020/05/04/850261945/u-s-treasury-to-borrow-3-trillion-in-3-months-to-pay-for-pandemic The Treasury Department also said it expects to borrow another $677 billion between July and September.

  2. Update says:

    An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.
    The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
    Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times. Over the past week, about 2,000 people died daily in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
    The sharp increases in the two models are tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility in the US. States across the country — including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina — have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive a sputtering economy and calm restless residents. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
    Center for Disease Control and Prevention Situation update: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

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