1972 MIT study on target for potential 21st century economic collapse


This Blue Marble in the Milky Way has finite resources

According to a new peer-reviewed scientific report, industrial civilisation is likely to deplete its low-cost mineral resources within the next century, with debilitating impacts for the global economy and key infrastructures within the coming decade.

The study, the 33rd report to the Club of Rome, is authored by Prof Ugo Bardi of the University of Florence’s Earth Sciences Department, and includes contributions from a wide range of senior scientists across relevant disciplines.

Its first report in 1972, The Limits to Growth, was conducted by a scientific team at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT), and warned that limited availability of natural resources relative to rising costs would undermine continued economic growth by around the second decade of the 21st century…

Although widely ridiculed, recent scientific reviews confirm that the original report’s projections in its ‘base scenario’ remain robust. In 2008, Australia’s federal government scientific research agency CSIRO concluded that The Limits to Growth forecast of potential “global ecological and economic collapse coming up in the middle of the 21st Century” due to convergence of “peak oil, climate change, and food and water security”, is “on-track.” Actual current trends in these areas “resonate strongly with the overshoot and collapse displayed in the book’s ‘business-as-usual scenario.'”

RTFA for more depth to this confirmation. There are multiple sources, newer, more advanced methods available. Not exactly cheerful news from modern economics.

Thanks, Ray Koenig

3 thoughts on “1972 MIT study on target for potential 21st century economic collapse

  1. Cassandra says:

    Earlier this month, sustainability researcher Gaya Herrington made headlines when she examined claims from a 1972 MIT study predicting the end of civilization — and found that we’re indeed on track for a collapse around the year 2040. https://futurism.com/the-byte/prediction-civilization-collapse
    Now, she’s standing by her grim forecast. The moral of the story, Herrington told The Guardian, is that business as usual — an approach that’s worsened global climate change and largely failed to mitigate the resulting weather disasters — will likely lead to economic and societal collapse. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth [ see links]
    However, she also feels it’s not too late to clean up our act:
    “The key finding of my study is that we still have a choice to align with a scenario that does not end in collapse. With innovation in business, along with new developments by governments and civil society, continuing to update the model provides another perspective on the challenges and opportunities we have to create a more sustainable world.”

    Good luck with that…

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