Despite disruptions, holiday spending may shatter records

The forecast is a continuation of strong consumer demand since the second half of last year which is exacerbating port congestion and other supply chain disruptions as a record number of containerized imports pour into the nation’s ports.

The NRF’s forecast for this season is calling for holiday sales (during November and December) to grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent, compared to 2020, to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. The numbers compare to the previous high of $777.3 set last year despite the pandemic…

Last year saw extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic. This year, however, the NRF said that while e-commerce will remain important, households are also expected to shift back to in-store shopping for a more traditional holiday experience.

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In its latest update addressing supply chain disruptions, the world’s top shipping company Maersk said the challenges the United States is facing with its supply chain is a byproduct of its growth and that more needs to be done to keep pace with increasing consumer demand…

The disruptions in manufacturing and ports in the Far East in early 2020, due to COVID-19, disrupted the normal flow of trade. But now that life is returning to normal in much of the United States, with people returning to offices and schools back in session, there’s been renewed demand from American households that is contributing to the rise in U.S. imports. After all, 70% of U.S. GDP is linked to consumer buying so it’s the U.S. consumer driving the economy, according to Maersk…

“The current situation is a growth story in the U.S. – and the supply chain disruption you are seeing is a byproduct of this growth. The challenge is every part of the U.S. supply chain needs to build more resilience and capacity to keep pace with consumer demand,” said Phol.

No surprise to me. I keep a listing on a major head-hunting site mostly to stay in touch with their economic research. I’m quite clear in letting folks know I’ve been retired for a couple of decades. That hasn’t inhibited folks trying to lure me back into logistics with green bits of paper. :-]

Fortunately, my wife and I are quite happy with our situation. Still, it’s the best kind of compliment in the Western World…getting job offers in both sales and logistics.

2 thoughts on “Despite disruptions, holiday spending may shatter records

  1. Sell by date says:

    What about Thanksgiving?! https://supplychaingamechanger.com/the-thanksgiving-turkey-supply-chain/
    The U.S. National Turkey Federation states that over 88% of Americans will eat turkey on Thanksgiving day.
    The number of turkeys consumed on Thanksgiving is staggering: over 46 million turkeys will be served on Thanksgiving, followed by 22 million turkeys at Christmas.
    Providing that number of turkeys requires the precision operation of a massive Supply Chain. How do that many turkeys get raised, processed, transported, distributed and purchased all to meet demand on a single day, Thanksgiving?
    In the context of the turkey Supply Chain it is extremely important to note that 90% of turkeys consumed are frozen and 10% are fresh – and fresh turkeys only have a 21 day shelf life.
    On the other hand the frozen birds that aren’t sold for Thanksgiving this year can be set aside for Christmas …or even next Easter.

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