5 thoughts on “Third time’s the charm…

  1. Déjà vu says:

    (Feb 3, 2022): “Some 30,000 Russian combat troops are expected to amass in Belarus in the coming weeks, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday, expressing concern about the build-up of Moscow’s military presence on Ukraine’s doorstep.
    “This is the biggest Russian deployment there since the Cold War,” Stoltenberg said in Brussels, adding that combat aircraft, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles, S-400 air defence systems and special units of the military intelligence agency GRU were involved in the build up.
    There were now “well over” 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine, Stoltenberg said.
    Moscow is planning a military maneuver in Belarus, its close ally, in mid-February, and has indicated that fewer than 13,000 Russian soldiers will be involved.
    Western allies fear that Moscow may be planning an incursion into Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin vehemently denies this and in return accuses NATO of stoking tensions in the region.” https://warisboring.com/nato-expects-30000-russian-troops-to-amass-in-belarus-within-weeks/
    “The U.S. accused the Kremlin on Thursday of an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbor.
    Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the scheme included production of a graphic propaganda video that would show staged explosions and use corpses and actors depicting grieving mourners.
    The U.S. has not provided detailed information backing up the claims.” https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-belarus-jens-stoltenberg-43c9151532de706a2edec5684dfcf07d

  2. Santayana says:

    “Experts are speculating over Russia’s next move. They may want to check Ukraine’s weather forecast” https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/08/europe/ukraine-russia-weather-climate-intl/index.html
    Rasputitsa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa#Wartime See photos
    “Fighting the Russians in Winter: Three Case Studies” (PDF). Dr. Allen F. Chew, Combat Studies Institute, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas (December 1981). https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/chew.pdf
    “Generals are always prepared to fight the last war.“ (Winston S. Churchill)

  3. Clausewitz says:

    “As tensions continue to rise over the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a top veteran Russian general, Leonid Ivashov has warned President Vladimir Putin against launching an invasion of Ukraine, further accusing him of fabricating an “artificial” crisis to divert attention away from his domestic difficulties. The 78-year-old Colonel-General also said that such an attack would make Russia a “pariah of the world community,” As per New York Post.
    Ivashov who is the chairman of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, stated in a letter called “The Eve of War” and published on the group’s website that Putin is following a “criminal policy of provoking war,” even though Russia is not under any serious threats. In the letter, he wrote, “(W)e demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will find itself alone against the united forces of the West … and resign,” New York Post reported.
    In addition to this, Putin has been contradicted by Ivashov’s letter, which stated that NATO forces do not pose a threat to Russia and that the West’s nuclear weapons are under reliable supervision. Leonid Ivashov who served as chief of military cooperation at Moscow’s Ministry of Defense during Putin’s early years in power and retired in the year 2001, noted that as far as foreign dangers are concerned, they are unquestionably present. “But, according to our expert assessment, they are not currently critical, directly threatening the existence of Russian statehood and its vital interests,” he added.” https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/ex-russian-general-warns-vladimir-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion-articleshow.html

  4. Update says:

    Ukraine-Russia crisis: White House says ‘credible prospect’ of imminent Russian invasion, more U.S. troops deployed to Poland https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/11/cold-war-fears-grip-eastern-europe-over-ukraine-standoff-russia/6749110001/
    Stocks fell sharply Friday after the White House said Americans should leave Ukraine “immediately” due to worries about an imminent invasion by Russia.
    Analysts have warned that a conflict in Ukraine could threaten energy supplies, including through potential sanctions. Russia is the world’s No. 2 producer of both oil and natural gas.
    Oil could “easily” hit $120 a barrel if there are “any disruptions” to oil flows from Russia and possibly go as high as $150, JPMorgan analysts said earlier this week. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/11/investing/dow-stock-market-today-russia-ukraine/index.html

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