Gasoline increased to a 7-1/2-year high of 2.76 USD/Gal as traders continued to monitor Iran’s nuclear talks against an increasingly tight global oil market. Demand is running hotter than models had forecasted, and the previously expected market surplus in the first quarter of the year now seems more distant. Despite President Biden’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, crude oil stockpiles have stayed on a downward trend as oil-producing countries failed to meet OPEC+ output targets. Still, the resumption of the negotiations with Iran could mean the return of Iranian oil to international markets, easing some of the momenta in oil and gasoline futures.
The price may look low to folks buying for the family car. The price per gallon quoted in the graph is for gasoline purchased in 1000 barrel lots. Some markets, right now, require a minimum purchase of 25,000 barrels.
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In a whiplash turn, oil has again sunk below $100 a barrel as fears of a COVID-19 lockdown in China’s capital ease the global demand crunch.
In addition to a drop in demand for oil in China—the world’s biggest crude importer—analysts believe the Ukraine war and surging inflation are also destroying the demand for oil.
Oil has also weakened on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates. A strong U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for other currency holders and increases risk aversion among investors.
https://fortune.com/2022/04/25/oil-just-dropped-below-98-a-barrel-and-analysts-are-now-backing-away-from-their-200-predictions-saying-war-and-covid-may-calm-high-prices/
Oil jumped to the highest since late March after a report said the U.S. plans to seek bids this fall to replenish its emergency crude reserves. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/5/oil-climbs-to-highest-since-march-as-us-eyes-crude-purchases
West Texas Intermediate jumped more than 3% to surpass $111. The Biden administration plans to seek bids for 60 million barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process to replenish America’s shrinking emergency oil reserve, CNN reported, citing an Energy Department official. Prices were also supported by OPEC+ ratifying a limited production increase following the European Union’s proposed ban on Russian imports.
Oil has surged more than 40% this year as the war disrupted flows, inflation picked up and central banks — including the U.S. Federal Reserve — started tightening policy. The dollar was higher Thursday, adding a headwind to crude, after the Fed hiked interest rates by the most since 2000.