On Groundhog Day, February 2nd 2021, Biden said he’d stop his blather about an ‘imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine“.
TOPLINE White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday said the Biden Administration is no longer referring to a Russian invasion of Ukraine as “imminent,” saying it “sent a message that we weren’t intending to send” after Ukrainian officials blasted the White House for promoting what it claims is unnecessary alarm.
KEY FACTS Psaki said at a press briefing the wording may have caused confusion since it suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin had already decided to invade and military action was simply a matter of timing.
Though it is not clear if Putin has decided one way or the other, Psaki said the White House still believes “he could invade at any time.”
Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said the American government is overreacting to the threat so far, including its decision to evacuate nonemergency diplomatic employees from Ukraine last month.
Biden waited several days, then, resumed his threat of imminent war. I figured since we’re celebrating the 1 year anniversary of Biden’s fear-mongering, I’d wander back a year just to remind folks how long this has been “imminent”.
I have no access to any super reporting in Europe or the US that tells me when and/or if Putin is nutso enough to want to squash Ukraine to keep them from tying up with NATO. Nor, do I have any source that can verify Biden has offered the keys to the White House safe to Ukraine officials to get them to stop pointing out – at least to American reporters – that they ain’t worried; so, would he please shut up!
But, it’s been a year of “IMMINENT!”, Joe. Pick a new word, will you?
Eideard 
In fact, Russia has already invaded Ukraine – on February 26, 2014, when Russia-backed forces established a military checkpoint in Crimea on the road from the port city of Sevastopol to Crimea’s capital Simferopol.
The following day, Russian special forces, operating without national insignia, seized the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol and raised the Russian flag. The incursion by the so-called “little green men” resulted in Russian forces taking control of the peninsula.
Re: The Revolution of Dignity, also known as the Maidan revolution, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
Did Obama whine about the IMMINENT incursion every day for a year or two in advance?
In November 2013, a wave of large scale protests (known as Euromaidan) erupted in response to Ukranian President Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) in favor of closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The protests led to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, known as the Revolution of Dignity.
On February 21, an agreement between President Yanukovych and the leaders of the parliamentary opposition was signed that called for early elections and the formation of an interim unity government. The following day, Yanukovych fled from the capital ahead of an impeachment vote. On the same day, the parliament declared that Yanukovych was relieved of duty in a 328-to-0 vote (out of the Rada’s 450 members).
Yanukovych subsequently claimed this vote was illegal and possibly coerced, and asked the Russian Federation for assistance. Russia declared the overthrow of Yanukovych to be an illegal coup, and did not recognize the interim government. Widespread protests, both in favor of and against the revolution, occurred in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, where Yanukovych previously received strong support in the 2010 presidential election. These protests escalated, resulting in a Russian military invasion on February 27 in which Russian soldiers without insignias took control of strategic positions and infrastructure within the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, which was followed by Russia formally incorporating Crimea as two Russian federal subjects – the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol – on 18 March 2014.
followed by the implementation of the self-proclaimed proto-states Donetsk and Luhansk on April 7, 2014.
How Putin’s Designs on Ukraine Reflect the “Dangerous Nostalgia” of a Lost Empire
At a U.N. Security Council meeting, a speech by Kenyan Ambassador Martin Kimani struck at the heart of the crisis set off by Russia’s aggression. https://theintercept.com/2022/02/22/ukraine-vladimir-putin-martin-kimani-speech/
“Irredentism is a political and popular movement whose members claim (usually on behalf of their nation), and seek to occupy, territory which they consider “lost” (or “unredeemed”), based on history or legend. The scope of this definition is occasionally subject to terminological disputes about underlying claims of expansionism, owing to lack of clarity on the historical bounds of putative nations or peoples.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irredentism
The Internet Is Debunking Russian War Propaganda in Real Time : It’s become increasingly difficult for Russia to publish believable propaganda. https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kb75e/the-internet-is-debunking-russian-war-propaganda-in-real-time
WallStreetsBets Discussing How to Profit From Ukraine: ‘Tendies’ for US Oil Stocks
Some are hoping for ‘total war’ that would pump US defense contractor stocks and offshore oil drilling. https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7n9wd/wallstreetsbets-discussing-how-to-profit-from-ukraine-tendies-for-us-oil-stocks
“Dangerous Myths: How the Crisis in Ukraine Explains Future Great Power Conflict”. The Modern War Institute at West Point (2018)
Click to access Dangerous-Myths-How-Crisis-Ukraine-Explains-Future-Great-Power-Conflict.pdf
See also “Sun Tzu’s Trap: The Illusion of Perpetual Competition” (2/10/22) https://mwi.usma.edu/sun-tzus-trap-the-illusion-of-perpetual-competition/
“13 days: Inside Biden’s last-ditch attempts to stop Putin in Ukraine
A pair of urgent Situation Room meetings and the days that followed provide a revealing window into the Biden administration’s unsuccessful scramble to deter a full-scale Russian invasion” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/25/inside-biden-putin-ukraine/
“For months, the White House made highly unusual releases of intelligence findings about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to attack Ukraine. Hoping to preempt an invasion, it released details of Russian troop buildups and warned repeatedly that a major assault was imminent.
In the end, Putin attacked anyway.
Critics of U.S. intelligence — including Russian officials who dismissed invasion allegations as fantasy — had been pointing to past failures like the false identification of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But Russia’s invasion so far has played out largely as the Biden administration said it would back in December, with nearly 200,000 troops striking from several sides of Ukraine.” https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-intel-predicted-russias-invasion-plans-matter-83101972
“As war loomed, U.S. armed Ukraine to hit [defend itself against] Russian aircraft, tanks and prep for urban combat, declassified shipment list shows” (Washington Post 3/4/22) https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/us-weapons-ukraine/
“The secret US mission to bolster Ukraine’s cyber defenses ahead of Russia’s invasion
Throughout 2021, US soldiers, experts worked to thwart an expected Russian cyber attack.” https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/03/the-secret-us-mission-to-bolster-ukraines-cyber-defences-ahead-of-russias-invasion/
Scroll down: “…instead of communicating solely through encrypted military-grade phones, Russian commanders are sometimes piggybacking on Ukrainian cell phone networks to communicate, at times simply by using their Russian cell phones.
“Oh, How They Lied. The Many Times Russia Denied Ukraine Invasion Plans” (March 9, 2022) https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-lies-ukraine-war/31745164.html
“The dangerous new phase of Russia’s war in Ukraine, explained” (3/19/22) https://www.vox.com/22970918/russia-war-in-ukraine-explained
Tanks for the memories:
“The Biden administration warned Monday that Russian forces are expected to intensify their military operations in Ukraine after weeks of stalled ground advances.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/us-warns-russia-will-intensify-their-military-operations-in-ukraine.html
“The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/26/biden-white-house-secret-planning-helped-ukraine-counter-russia/
“The Biden administration’s secret planning began in April 2021 when Russia massed about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. The buildup turned out to be a feint, but Blinken and other officials discussed U.S. intelligence about Russia’s actions with leaders of Britain, France and Germany at a NATO meeting in Brussels that month. Their message was, “We need to get ourselves prepared,” a senior State Department official said.
…The Biden administration’s organization of this coalition to support Ukraine may look simple in retrospect. But it was a complicated coordination of diplomatic, military and intelligence resources that pulled together dozens of nations at what may prove to be a hinge point in modern history. Putin thought he could roll through Biden and the West to an easy victory in Kyiv. The Russian leader made a catastrophic mistake in overvaluing his own strength and underestimating the resolve of Biden and his team.”
“Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion” (Washington Post) https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/?itid=mr_1
“This account, in previously unreported detail, shines new light on the uphill climb to restore U.S. credibility, the attempt to balance secrecy around intelligence with the need to persuade others of its truth, and the challenge of determining how the world’s most powerful military alliance would help a less-than-perfect democracy on Russia’s border defy an attack without NATO firing a shot.
The first in a series of articles examining the road to war and the military campaign in Ukraine, it is drawn from in-depth interviews with more than three dozen senior U.S., Ukrainian, European and NATO officials about a global crisis whose end is yet to be determined. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence and internal deliberations.
The Kremlin did not respond to repeated requests for comment.”
“Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine” (New Yorker magazine October 24, 2022 Issue) https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/inside-the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine
“Russia is fighting by the book. The problem is, it’s the wrong book” https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/russia-is-fighting-by-the-book-the-problem-is-its-the-wrong-book/