Our fake president loves to appoint folks even less-qualified than he…
How powerful would Hurricane Harvey have been in 1880? How much stronger might it be in 2100?
❝ A single Hurricane Harvey has been more than anyone can bear. But to better prepare cities for future storms, researchers are preparing to re-watch Harvey thousands of times. They’ve already been studying earlier storms, and their conclusions don’t bode well for the decades to come.
❝ In the months and years after Superstorm Sandy’s 2012 assault on New Jersey and New York, Gary Lackmann, an atmospheric science professor at North Carolina State University, was asked how the event might be understood in light of human-driven global warming. He knew that the question everyone wants answered—did climate change cause the storm—wasn’t the right one. Hurricanes were around long before the industrial revolution. Two questions did, however, resonate:
What would the weather pattern that sustained Sandy have spawned in a cooler past or a hotter future?…
RTFA for conclusions.
The body of Lackmann’s study ran before Hurricane Harvey. He’s adding that info to an ongoing evaluation. The more empirical data you have, the better. Especially in the political climate of crap “alternative facts” so loved by today’s conservatives.
❝ Tropical Storm Cindy formed in the Gulf Tuesday afternoon and was heading toward the Louisiana coast, bringing with it the potential threat of life-threatening flash floods.
As a result, the Gulf coast from the Louisiana-Mississippi border, which includes New Orleans, to the Houston-Galveston area of Texas was under a tropical storm warning — which means tropical storm conditions are expected.
❝ Stacy Stewart, Senior Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said that what’s notable about Cindy was that some of the storm’s most intense weather was far from its core.
Tropical storm-force winds were extending about 205 miles from the storm’s center, mainly to the north and east, forecasters said.
“It’s a large sprawling system, it’s not a classic tropical cyclone,” Stewart said.
❝ Whether it’s a sign of things to come this season remains to be seen, but NOAA’s prediction of a busier-than-normal hurricane season is ringing true so far.
As much as we often whine about the absence of rain – average annual rainfall here in northern New Mexico is 14+ inches. If we’re lucky. Still, I do not miss the weather on the Gulf of Mexico. Even if I miss the crawfish.
❝ As tropical storm Frank was forming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, NASA analyzed rainfall and cloud heights and found “hot towers” that indicated intensification was likely.
After the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite passed over System 99E, it quickly strengthened into Tropical Depression 07E and then a tropical storm. The…satellite flew directly above the increasingly organized stormy area on July 21, 2016 at 4:51 a.m. EDT. GPM found some powerful thunderstorms contained intense showers. Rain was measured by GPM’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar instrument falling at a rate of over 7.2 inches per hour in a few of these convective storms.
WTF? Ever been in a tropical downpour? They average about 1½ inches/hour rainfall – up to 6″ max. I’ve been in cities with superb drainage, lots of paving leading to storm drains – at 2″ hour and experienced flooding.
❝ GPM data also provided a 3-D look at the storms. GPM’s radar…slicing through these storms found that some tall thunderstorms were reaching heights of over 9.9 miles…
A “hot tower” is a tall cumulonimbus cloud that reaches at least to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. It extends approximately 9 miles high in the tropics. These towers are called “hot” because they rise to such altitude due to the large amount of latent heat. Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid. Those towering thunderstorms have the potential for heavy rain. NASA research shows that a tropical cyclone with a hot tower in its eyewall was twice as likely to intensify within six or more hours, than a cyclone that lacked a hot tower…
❝ Frank was moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and the NHC forecast a turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Frank is expected to move away from the southwest coast of Mexico and pass well south of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. NHC said some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank could become a hurricane during the weekend.
I’m not posting this to give you the weather forecast over the eastern Pacific. Just pointing out what’s happening in weather systems during a fairly normal La Nina year. Maybe even lightweight at this point. As a matter of habit in the high desert Southwest we watch for orange tops with hopes of getting a bit of precip. For you folks, elsewhere, it’s a different story.
I’d suggest you start paying attention. “Nobody told me this was coming” ain’t a terrific excuse anymore.
Climate change has added billions to the toll of hurricane strikes on the U.S., according to a study that challenges the prevailing scientific view that the rising cost is mainly because more buildings, towns and businesses are in the way.
Stronger, more frequent storms may have accounted for as much as $14 billion of hurricane damage in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, according to research published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience. The cost, as much as 12 percent of total U.S. damage that year, is over and above what can be explained by coastal development alone, the scientists said.
“The main message is we have to be more cautious with climate change and reassess our estimates of how much it’s going to cost us,” lead author Francisco Estrada, an economist at National Autonomous University of Mexico, in Mexico City, said in a telephone interview. “The conclusion that there is no climate change signal in extreme events is no longer valid.”
While scientists are virtually unanimous in saying humans are warming the planet, there’s less certainty about the resulting effect on hurricanes. A study published in May said warmer ocean temperatures may decrease the number of tropical storms but make those that do form more powerful. There’s equal debate about how much blame should be tied to climate change for rising storm costs in the U.S., which increased at the rate of $136 million a year over the last century, according to Estrada…
Past studies have concluded that the higher costs are mainly a function of building more homes and businesses along the coast, as well as the rising value of that property, and not due to storms juiced up by global warming.
In the paper, Estrada and two European researchers say previous studies ignored the fact that more development often comes with added protection against hurricanes, from sea walls and stricter building codes to better early-warning systems. Those protections tend to reduce damages and may hide the effect of weather getting stronger, the scientists said…
“If you look at the scientific literature, the consensus is the climate change signal won’t appear in hurricanes until the end of this century,” Estrada said. “What we are saying is that it’s already there.”
Americans always forget – if they ever knew – that science is collected and examined in a wholly conservative manner. Then, re-examined, parsed and re-analyzed. In a wholly conservative manner.
Because our society’s rulers, pundits, priests and politicians are offended by reality – they choose to ignore the truth and the science that assembles truths for examination. They allow for no action confronting potentially negative change to our lives. The rest of us can’t afford such an alternative.
Damaged – and repairable
In a residential neighborhood near the center of a monster tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma last month, two partially damaged houses stand like an island among others flattened by the storm.
The walls and roofs of the buildings in a new housing development called Featherstone Addition are still upright while there is nothing left but a concrete foundation where other homes once stood nearby.
The two homes were not completely spared but are salvageable, according to David Prevatt, a civil engineer who saw them when he surveyed the damage after Moore took a direct hit from an EF5 tornado, the strongest rating.
He is convinced that the two houses survived because they were built stronger than most in Oklahoma and the rest of “tornado alley” – the region stretching from Texas to Iowa that accounts for roughly a fourth of all U.S. tornadoes.
“This notion that we cannot engineer buildings economically to withstand tornado loads is a fallacy,” said Prevatt, who has studied damage from hurricanes and the devastating tornadoes in 2011 in Joplin, Missouri and Tuscaloosa, Alabama…
Damage costs are rising because of increased population density, even in mostly rural states such as Oklahoma, which has seen substantial urban sprawl in the last decade, said Greg Carbin, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
Another important reason that has received less attention, is that most homes in tornado alley are not built to withstand even a modest tornado.
The result is that residents of tornado alley, insurance companies and the U.S. government are footing a mounting bill from damage that could be limited with better construction, according to several engineers, meteorologists and consumer advocates interviewed by Reuters.
“We have to stop this cycle of a storm coming along destroying things and we build them back the same,” said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, chief executive of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, a consumer group. “That is the official definition of insanity.”
Oklahoma should follow the example of Florida after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and adopt a tougher building code to reduce damage in future, said Prevatt, Assistant Professor of Civil and Coastal Engineering at the University of Florida.
RTFA for a boatload of detailed information and analysis. Useful stuff – in a society that responds to thoughtful, scientific study. Unfortunately, that definition doesn’t especially include the United States.
International building codes, the standards for safety and sustenance, generally are about a decade ahead of the United States. Any progressive moves on the world stage take at least that long before consideration gets on the US agenda – Congress and the corporations supplying building materials to American homebuilders. The National Association of Home Builders starts work on analysis and understanding immediately if not sooner – but, everyone in the NAHB knows that the adoption process will be slower than the average tortoise.
Now, we could make regional changes based on what Florida and the hurricane states have learned. That’s still too easy for the States’ Rights crowd. You have to understand that a minor percentage of residents in Tornado Alley – and especially their favorite conservative politicians – still hate the idea of building standards, code ordinances and zoning.
The re-election of President Obama, preceded by the extraordinary damage done by Hurricane Sandy, raises a critical question: In the coming years, might it be possible for the United States to take significant steps to reduce the risks associated with climate change?
A crucial decision during Ronald Reagan’s second term suggests that the answer may well be yes. The Reagan administration was generally skeptical about costly environmental rules, but with respect to protection of the ozone layer, Reagan was an environmentalist hero. Under his leadership, the United States became the prime mover behind the Montreal Protocol, which required the phasing out of ozone-depleting chemicals.
There is a real irony here. Republicans and conservatives had ridiculed scientists who expressed concern about the destruction of the ozone layer. How did Ronald Reagan, of all people, come to favor aggressive regulatory steps and lead the world toward a strong and historic international agreement?
A large part of the answer lies in a tool disliked by many progressives but embraced by Reagan (and Mr. Obama): cost-benefit analysis. Reagan’s economists found that the costs of phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals were a lot lower than the costs of not doing so — largely measured in terms of avoiding cancers that would otherwise occur. Presented with that analysis, Reagan decided that the issue was pretty clear.
Much the same can be said about climate change. Recent reports suggest that the economic cost of Hurricane Sandy could reach $50 billion and that in the current quarter, the hurricane could remove as much as half a percentage point from the nation’s economic growth. The cost of that single hurricane may well be more than five times greater than that of a usual full year’s worth of the most expensive regulations, which ordinarily cost well under $10 billion annually. True, scientists cannot attribute any particular hurricane to greenhouse gas emissions, but climate change is increasing the risk of costly harm from hurricanes and other natural disasters. Economists of diverse viewpoints concur that if the international community entered into a sensible agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the economic benefits would greatly outweigh the costs…
The electricity sector is responsible for more than a third of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. In this domain, any regulations must be carefully devised, as they were in the case of fuel economy, to ensure that they do not impose unjustified costs, especially in an economically difficult period. But just as in that case, it should be possible to work with affected companies to identify flexible and cost-conscious approaches, producing reductions while minimizing regulatory burdens…
For those who seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change, it is ironic but true that the best precedent comes from a conservative icon. The big question now is whether today’s Republicans will follow Reagan’s example.
Of course, the good professor has his pointy head up his butt when it comes to characterizing progressives – especially enviros – as refusing cost-benefit analysis. It’s one of the most boring areas of expertise often over-utilized by today’s activists. The only time it gets problematical is when the folks I fondly refer to as the “New Age Left” get carried away, applying great quantities of ersatz maths to condemn cuckoo farts as critical to reducing carbon emissions.
You know what I mean.
Still, if Professor Sunstein thinks he can convince, say, Darrell Issa or Mitch McConnell to peek at the reams of spreadsheets and computerized projection that scientists have been offering for the last dozen years and more – more power to him. I’m only interested in future generations being able to enjoy life on this planet as much as I have. Perhaps more.
Why expect Congress to worry about your flood insurance?
Federal officials are putting fresh pressure on Congress to take action on the National Flood Insurance Program, whose authorization expires at the end of this month, one day before hurricane season begins.
The NFIP has been a political football in Washington for years, particularly because of the unsustainable debt load it took on in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. There is a broad push to reform the program and put it on a sound financial footing, but competing visions on that reform (including whether to forgive the program’s debts) have stalled legislation.
For now the program remains in business with repeated short-term extensions [which is what you get with today’s Republicans + Kool Aid Party], though in 2010 it was allowed to lapse for a few weeks. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is warning of serious consequences if that happens again…
Federal law requires that homes in designated flood-risk areas have flood insurance before a mortgage can be completed. Because the NFIP is effectively the only flood insurance available in the United States, a lapse in the program means home sales cannot close in designated flood areas…
For now the debate appears to be focused on whether to move ahead with reform legislation pending in the U.S. Senate or to simply reauthorize the existing program.
FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, in an April 17 letter to congressional leaders, asked for a two-year reauthorization.
An insurance industry coalition…condemned that request last week…blah, blah, blah.
Are we supposed to believe that Congressional Republicans are motivated by concerns for homeowners who have only the NFIP to rely on for flood insurance? The Tea Party has to call the insurance companies for instructions on how to
pee brew their tea. The same old dance of death for the simplest of actions on behalf of citizens.
Given their track record, the right-wing nutballs in Congress will probably want homeowners to give up their right to sue against eminent domain taking of their property – as compensation for being allowed to buy insurance.
Hurricane experts are throwing cold water on an idea backed by billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates aimed at controlling the weather.
Gates and a dozen other scientists have raised eyebrows by submitting patent applications for a technology to reduce the danger of approaching hurricanes by cooling ocean temperatures.
It’s a noble idea, given the horrible memories from Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into the Gulf Coast four years ago this week…
“The enormity of it, in order to do something effective, we’d have to do something at a scale that humans have never really done before,” said Gabriel Vecchi, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration…
Hurricanes are fueled by warm water, and cooling the waters surrounding a storm would slow a storm’s momentum.
According to the patents, many tub-like barges would be placed directly in the path of an oncoming storm. Each barge would have two conduits, each 500 feet long.
One conduit would push the warm water from the ocean’s surface down. The other would bring up cold water where it lies deep undersea.
RTFA. Perfectly understandable. As are the reasons why a lot of folks think it couldn’t work.