20 thoughts on “It’s the economy, stupid!

  1. Gweilo Joe says:

    Results of a private survey on Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded for the month of July — the fastest pace in nearly a decade, according to records.
    The private survey showed that policy stimulus is helping the world’s second-largest economy in its recovery from the pandemic, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/china-economy-caixin-markit-pmi-for-july-2020.html

  2. p/s says:

    “U.S. economy needs over $1 trillion in fresh coronavirus stimulus, says world’s biggest hedge fund” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/bridgewater-associates-co-cio-greg-jensen-on-coronavirus-stimulus-need.html
    “If the economy is hurting, why is the stock market climbing? Here’s one simple answer” https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/personal-finance/article245351860.html
    Australia’s economy takes sharpest dive since the 1930s https://www.stltoday.com/business/australias-economy-takes-sharpest-dive-since-the-1930s/article_902f8429-6802-5a55-ac4d-f492fe7f4ddd.html
    “The Indian economy contracted by 23.9 percent in the second quarter, the most drastic fall in decades, as lockdown restrictions meant to contain the spread of the coronavirus wiped out jobs and businesses.
    India’s decline was the worst among the world’s top economies, with the U.S. economy shrinking 9.5 percent in the same quarter and Japan’s 7.6 percent.
    Economists say once the impact on the country’s vast “informal” work force is taken into account, the damage might be even worse.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/world/asia/india-economy-gdp.html

  3. Hey, Rube! says:

    “Study: Inequality Robs $2.5 Trillion From U.S. Workers Each Year” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/rand-study-how-high-is-inequality-us.html
    Rand Corporation: “Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018” https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html
    See also “Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts” https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/
    “…Under Paul Volcker’s leadership, the Federal Reserve consciously sought to overcome the high inflation of the late 1970s by breaking the bargaining power of U.S. workers, and reducing labor’s share of income. Thanks to the Reagan revolution, among other things, the central bank accomplished this objective too well. Now, instead of contending with inflationary pressures, the Fed must make increasingly audacious interventions in capital markets to ward off the perennial threat of consumer price deflation — even as asset prices rise to evermore spectacular highs.”

    “A Historian of Economic Crisis on the World After COVID-19” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/adam-tooze-how-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-change-world-history.html

  4. Ibn Khaldun says:

    “There’s mounting evidence that the pandemic is dealing a lasting blow to the American economy, with millions of jobs vanishing forever.
    The number of unemployed people classified as permanently losing their old jobs climbed by 345,000 in September to a seven-year high of 3.8 million, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    …The percentage of unemployed Americans classified as permanently unemployed rose to 35.6% in September, up from just 11.1% in April.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/economy/permanent-job-losses-recession/index.html
    See also “What the Disappointing Final Jobs Report Before the Election Tells Us About the Economy” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/what-the-disappointing-jobs-report-says-about-the-economy.html
    Meanwhile: “Subsidized cars help low-income families economically, socially” (Cornell University) https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/cu-sch100220.php
    In “Subsidizing Car Ownership for Low-Income Individuals and Households,” published in the Journal of Planning Education and Research, Nicholas Klein, assistant professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University, reports insights from interviews with 30 people who gained access to inexpensive, reliable cars through the nonprofit Vehicles for Change (VFC). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0739456X20950428 [scroll down to VFC for details about the program]

  5. Cassandra says:

    “Fed chair warns of economic tragedy if America can’t control the coronavirus” https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/economy/fed-powell-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html
    “Fed’s Jerome Powell Calls For More Economic Aid, Warning ‘Weakness Feeds On Weakness’ https://www.npr.org/2020/10/06/920770414/feds-jerome-powell-calls-for-more-economic-aid-warning-weakness-feeds-on-weaknes
    “Fed’s Jerome Powell pushes for more coronavirus stimulus” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33l_Oo4ACbA
    “Trump says he’s calling off stimulus negotiations with Democrats ‘until after the election’ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/06/trump-says-hes-calling-off-stimulus-negotiations-with-democrats-until-after-the-election.html
    Stocks took a 600 point dive Tuesday afternoon after President Donald Trump said he ordered an end to stimulus negotiations until after the November election. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/investing/dow-stock-market-stimulus/index.html

      • 3Card Monte says:

        “Global markets struggle to make sense of Trump’s stimulus tweet storm” https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/investing/global-stocks/index.html
        “Just hours after Trump’s decision to halt negotiations on a major economic stimulus package caused US stocks to plummet, he called on US lawmakers to approve smaller measures that would provide relief to airlines and small businesses.
        “The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business,” Trump tweeted late on Tuesday. “Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!”
        He later added that he was “ready to sign” a “Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200).”
        See also “Billionaires have never been richer despite the pandemic”
        “Billionaire wealth increased to $10.2 trillion at the end of July, up from a previous peak of $8.9 trillion in 2017, according to a report from Swiss bank UBS and PwC. The total number of billionaires has increased by 31 to 2,189 since 2017.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/business/billionaires-ubs-report/index.html

  6. Wilhelm scream says:

    “President Donald Trump is no longer winning on his signature issue: the economy.
    In a CNN poll released Tuesday, Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were tied among registered voters at 49% apiece on the question of who would handle the economy better. Among likely voters, Biden gets 50%, compared with 48% for Trump, a statistical dead heat.
    It’s not an anomaly either. The two candidates were essentially tied on the issue in the last CNN poll taken August 28 – September 1.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/economy/2020-poll-trump-biden-economy/index.html
    “Goldman Sachs thinks a blue wave of Democrats — meaning full control of government via the presidency (Joe Biden), Senate and House — come November could be good for the U.S. economy.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-blue-wave-of-democrats-come-november-may-be-good-for-economy-goldman-sachs-181544426.html

  7. Doc says:

    “Coronavirus pandemic to cost Americans $16 trillion, study finds” (CBS News 10/13/20) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-pandemic-cost-americans-16-trillion/

    “The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic is the greatest threat to prosperity and well-being the US has encountered since the Great Depression. This Viewpoint aggregates mortality, morbidity, mental health conditions, and direct economic losses to estimate the total cost of the pandemic in the US on the optimistic assumption that it will be substantially contained by the fall of 2021. These costs far exceed those associated with conventional recessions and the Iraq War, and are similar to those associated with global climate change. However, increased investment in testing and contact tracing could have economic benefits that are at least 30 times greater than the estimated costs of the investment in these approaches.” Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Oct 12, 2020: “The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus” https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764

  8. Footnote says:

    China’s trade with the world surges as economies reopen https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/13/chinas-trade-with-the-world-surges-as-economies-reopen
    China’s imports grew in September at their fastest pace this year, while exports extended strong gains as more trading partners lifted coronavirus restrictions in a further boost to the world’s second-biggest economy.
    Exports in September rose 9.9 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Tuesday, broadly in line with analysts’ expectations and up from a solid 9.5 percent increase in August.

    “The coastal Chinese city of Qingdao will test its more than nine million residents for Covid-19, authorities said, after the discovery of a dozen new cases linked to a local hospital—the country’s most significant virus scare in several months.
    Mass testing has become a major part of how the Chinese government plans to eradicate coronavirus and keep the economy on track. Chinese authorities remain on high alert for potential Covid-19 outbreaks despite having largely brought the pandemic under control within the country’s borders.
    While the daily new-case counts in the U.S. and Europe are in the tens of thousands, China’s are in the low two digits, and almost all the infections are brought in by people traveling from other countries. New arrivals who test positive are immediately placed in strictly enforced quarantine. Those efforts have helped China’s economy bounce back faster than those of major competitors, and officials are eager to prevent a second wave of infections that could derail the recovery. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-cluster-in-chinas-qingdao-prompts-city-wide-testing-11602502755

  9. 7 come 11 says:

    Stimulus talks come down to a Trump loyalty litmus test https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/stimulus-state-of-play-nancy-pelosi-steve-mnuchin/index.html
    The Fed Saved the Economy but Is Threatening Trillions of Dollars Worth of Middle-Class Retirement : The Federal Reserve has bailed out the stock and bond markets and stabilized the economy with its rock-bottom rates — but at the expense of Social Security and pension funds. https://www.propublica.org/article/the-fed-saved-the-economy-but-is-threatening-trillions-of-dollars-worth-of-middle-class-retirement

  10. Death march says:

    The next economic crisis: Empty retail space : As tenants stop paying and shrink their offices, commercial real estate is cratering. (10/18/20) https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/18/next-economic-crisis-empty-retail-space-429994 “Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession.
    …Apartment buildings, on the other hand, have performed well — so far. Industry analysts are anxiously watching for signs of additional tenants missing rent now that the initial spurt of economic relief included in the $2 trillion CARES Act Congress passed in March is sputtering out.
    Apartment property owners are also hemmed in by a nationwide ban on evictions for nonpayment of rent put in place by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month. The order included no funding for rental assistance — effectively requiring landlords to subsidize struggling tenants’ housing until it expires Dec. 31.”

  11. America held hostage: day 1,377 says:

    “As Washington delays stimulus, the Fed is running out of ways to help the economy” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/the-fed-.html
    “Dow sheds 800 points as coronavirus cases spike, stimulus talks hit impasse” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/10/28/dow-sheds-550-points-covid-19-cases-spike-stimulus-hits-impasse/6052613002/
    “The U.S. economy is on track to shrink by 4.3 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. While that is about the same rate as the global economy, it puts the U.S. behind countries including South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and China, which will see at least 1.9 percent in economic growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to take on debt levels it hasn’t seen since World War II. The country’s federal debt increased by $5.6 trillion, which economists believe is manageable now with low interest rates. But such a high debt level could slow down economic growth in the future.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/whatever-happened-trump-s-opening-america-again-task-force-n1244203 Meanwhile, with a current unemployment rate of 7.9 percent, 40 million people still face eviction, bankruptcies are at record levels, and the number of Americans living in poverty has grown by 8 million since May.
    Also, despite the elevated number of coronavirus cases, Trump said Tuesday the U.S. is “rounding the turn” on the pandemic https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-says-we-re-rounding-turn-covid-19-spreading-faster-n1244942 and the White House claimed the pandemic is over https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2020/10/27/white-house-says-covid-pandemic-over-did-we-miss-miracle/3754590001/

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